Monday Morning Update

Monday, June 16th 2014, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

We're expecting dry but humid conditions today with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Gusty south winds will prevail in the 15 to 25 mph range.  These conditions will persist through the middle of the week before additional storm chances will return Wednesday through Friday. 

The upper air flow is from the southwest.  A mid-level ridge of high pressure will briefly build in across the eastern part of the state today through Tuesday, but a dry line at the surface across western OK may provide a few isolated storms for our neighbors in western OK for the next few days.  These will not have a chance to move into the eastern third of the state.

Wednesday a strong upper level system will develop and move across the intermountain region while a weak mid-level disturbance will eject out of the Mexican plateau and begin moving across Texas into Oklahoma.  This lead wave may give us a few isolated storms Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the chance will remain near 20%. 

Thursday into Friday the big upper level system will lift out across the central and northern High plains. Lift will spread across the northern part of the state and southern Kansas.  Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible during this period, and mainly across the northern third of OK into southern Kansas.  Friday morning into the afternoon, the main upper level system will lift northeast into the upper Midwest and eventually into the Great Lakes Region.  At the surface, a weak boundary may briefly enter northern OK or southern Kansas, but should stall or become diffuse by the weekend.  Another mid-level ridge of high pressure should build into the eastern third of the state keeping the weekend storm chances to less than 10%.

As is usually the case, the extended data diverges regarding the late next weekend into early next week.  Yesterday's EURO would keep the ridge with humid and warm conditions.  The GFS would offer a northwest flow pattern allowing periodic intrusions of MCS activity and a few frontal passages next week.  The very latest EURO and GFS run both offer the boundary nearing the northern third of the state Sunday into early next week.  The GFS continues to bring the boundary southward with high storm chances while the EURO keeps the ridge slightly south with a stationary front across the northern third of the state.  At this point, I have zero faith in any of the solutions for early next week. I'll keep Sunday dry, but we'll eventually be adding a pop for the beginning of next week until we find a clear cut winner.

Temperatures today will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  And the warm and humid conditions will persist for the next few days.  Temp heat index values may climb into the mid-90s Wednesday and Thursday. 

In summary, a few storms will remain for the next two hours across far northern OK and southern Kansas.  Expect a partly to mostly sunny and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 along with gusty south winds. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 85 recorded at 6:072pm.

The normal daily average high is 88 and the low is 68.

Our daily records include a high of 106 from 1911.  The daily record low is 50 from 1917.  

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone