Monday Morning Update

Good morning.  We're continuing to track a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region for another 36 hours.  Early this morning a complex of thunderstorms ( MCS) is tracking across far southwestern OK but is taking southeastern track into northern Texas.  Part of the northern edge of this system currently near OKC may slide eastward and northeast into northern OK this morning between 5am and 8am.  Due to yesterday's rain, the atmosphere is not conducive for severe storms this morning across eastern OK and probably for the afternoon.  The main upper level trough will swing across the area this afternoon providing another good chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Locations southeast of a line from Ardmore to McAlester to Ft Smith could see a few severe storms today and tonight.  Highs will range in the mid to upper 70s with muggy conditions.  A flash flood watch remains in effect for a large portion of central and eastern OK. 

The data suggest the upper level trough will slide across the area today and tonight and be moving across eastern OK Tuesday midday.  A few wrap around showers and storms may persist into the first half of Tuesday across eastern OK.  This will be relatively light showers with little in the way of significant accumulations. The actual coverage Tuesday is up for debate, but we'll stick with a 30-40% pop on the 7 day planner and positioned these near and east of Tulsa.  

Wednesday appears dry, windy, and slightly breezy by afternoon with highs in the mid or upper 80s.   The upper air pattern will once again be supportive of storm complexes developing near and north of the area moving southeast by the end of the week.  The data suggests a system nearing Thursday morning, and for part of the weekend.  Our extended forecast will reflect this increase in probabilities for the Thursday morning time period and we'll keep a slight chance of storms for the Saturday night and Sunday morning slot across far northern OK and southern Kansas.  

Temperatures today will stay in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy conditions and relatively light winds. 

Highs Tuesday will move into the upper 70s and Wednesday nearing the mid-80s.   

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was74 recorded at 12:14pm.

The normal daily average high is 86 and the low is 66.

Our daily records include a high of 105 from 1911.  The daily record low is 56 from 1996 and 1978.

Rainfall yesterday was 0.59 inches.  Our year to date total in Tulsa is now 11.01 which is -6.96 inches below normal for the year.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV