Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, May 20th 2014, 4:34 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're already seeing gusty south winds this morning across the southern plains including the state of Oklahoma.  Our wind speeds will be in the 15 to 30 mph range today from the south with afternoon highs in the upper 80s near 90.  The additional low level moisture influx both today and tomorrow may keep our readings just shy 90 degrees, but it may be close.  Locations to the west will see mid and upper 90s across the western third of the state with some triple digits likely across the OK-Texas panhandle region.  Our next chance for showers and storms may not arrive until this weekend, and most of this activity may remain west of our area for most of the weekend.

The upper air pattern has changed compared to last week.  A mid-level ridge of high-pressure has moved eastward and is now the dominate feature across the southern plains.  A strong upper level  low, currently near the west coast, will be dropping southward today before moving southeast Wednesday and Thursday.  This feature will be located near southern Nevada into the desert southwestern U.S. Thursday and Friday.  The mid-level ridge will slowly slide southeast or east by this weekend.  The combination of the increasing low level moisture and the southwestern U.S. upper level low will result in a chance for a few scattered showers or storms across eastern OK.  I still think the position of the low will be close enough to warrant the slight mention in the forecast, but too far west to bring high chances to the our immediate area for the weekend.  Much higher probabilities will be required for western sections of the state Friday through the weekend.

Before all of this occurs, a system will move across the central part or the nation today and Wednesday.  This will attempt to push a cold front across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Wednesday.    A few showers or storms will be likely for our friends in central Kansas with these features.  A few storms may move east or southeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning brushing far southeastern Kansas or southwestern Missouri.  It's unlikely this activity will move into northern OK, but a few isolated storms may take a run at the state line before running into the mid-level ridge.  This chance remains a whopping 10%. 

The GFS and EURO continue to offer decent run to run consistency with the weekend pops, but have some big differences by early next week regarding the exact position of the low.  This results in different outputs regarding the chance for precipitation for our area.  We have chosen to follow a compromise blending of the two suites. This will keep a mention for showers and storms in the forecast this weekend with the higher likelihood just west of the area.   Memorial Day may feature a higher chance for showers and storms near the eastern third of the state, but frankly, we're too early to make that call with any confidence.   The difference in the GFS and EURO with the upper level low early next week is significant.  The EURO has the low moving northeast into southeastern South Dakota by next Tuesday while the GFS has the low across the high plains of Texas into part of Oklahoma.   

The temperatures will continue to be above the seasonal average for both morning lows and afternoon highs. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 84 recorded at 4:05pm.

The normal daily average high is 80 and the low is 60.

Our daily records include a low of 42 from 1981 and a high of 94 from both 2006 and 1956. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on numerous Tulsa metro "Clear Channel Radio Stations" including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and the Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

 Alan Crone