Friday Morning Update

Friday, May 9th 2014, 4:08 am
By: Alan Crone

The next few hours will feature a few showers and thunderstorms across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  A few of these were strong late last night, but the chance for severe storms this morning will remain low.  

The cold front is advancing southeast and will clear the Tulsa area by early morning and push into southeastern OK by early afternoon.  If any storm activity attempts to re-develop along the boundary later this afternoon, storms should remain across far southeastern OK or western Arkansas where a few could be severe.  

The clouds will clear across the area from the west to east today with sunshine and highs this afternoon approaching the upper 70s near 80.  Northeast winds at 10 to15 mph will be common before becoming light late tonight and backing from the southeast. 

I think most of Saturday looks good but late Saturday night some thunderstorm activity is possible according to various model outputs.  If the storms do form, they would be severe.  The NAM is most bullish with storm chances arriving around 7pm or so and lasting through the 1am hour from northeastern OK into southwester Missouri.  A few could linger into pre-dawn Sunday, but I think after the 1am Sunday period, most storms would be out of NE OK.  

Sunday midday to early afternoon strong capping should develop over the area with dry and windy conditions prevailing through the midday to early afternoon periods.  But late Sunday afternoon and evening a cold front will enter northwestern OK and southern Kansas providing severe thunderstorm chances for part of the region.  This boundary will slowly slide southeast and arrive near the Tulsa area by early Monday morning.  Heavy rainfall and some severe weather will be possible along this boundary before cooler and dry air arrives sometime Monday afternoon or evening.  The timing of this system will more than likely change in the data between now and Monday, but we feel a high pop is warranted for this system.  At this point, the front should clear the state Monday night or early Tuesday morning with cooler and improving weather Tuesday and Wednesday. 

The data and observational network supports cooler air for most of next week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-70s for afternoon highs and morning lows in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday and Wednesday morning.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 77 recorded at 4:-06pm.

The normal daily average high is 78 and the low is 57.

Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1918 and a low of 38 from both 1923 and 1966. 

I'm on numerous radio stations throughout the state this morning and afternoon discussing our forecast including The Radio Oklahoma News Network and several Tulsa metro stations like KMOD, The Twister, The Buzz, and The Beat.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great Friday! 

Alan Crone