Wednesday Morning Update

Next up:  storm chances Thursday, some maybe severe.   

Temps this afternoon are expected to move into the mid-80s along with south winds around 10 to 25 mph.  I still think there could be an isolated thunderstorm or two near or west of the area this afternoon, but the layer of warm air aloft ( the cap) will more than likely suppress most if not all thunderstorm activity across eastern OK.  NSSL 4K indicates a storm would be possible south of Kay County around 7pm tonight.  Additional storms are likely to develop after midnight across southwestern OK moving northeast early Thursday morning.  

The models continue to support increasing storm chances later tonight into pre-dawn Thursday across the state including eastern OK.  Once again, the threat for some strong to severe storms will remain with this system.  It's still unclear at this hour whether or not we'll experience any severe storms Thursday morning.  The odds would keep the storms below severe levels, but the influence of the low level jet may be enough to crank out a few severe storms.  Again, most of the storms would be elevated for the early morning hours with a limited severe weather threat.  

Later tomorrow afternoon additional storms will be attempting to develop off the dry line as strong upper level winds approach the area and storms would become surface based.   Some of these storms should be severe with all modes of severe weather possible even though the main threat will remain large hail and damaging winds.   

The storms will be slow to exit the far eastern OK until Friday morning as the cold front catches up with the dry line and moves southeast of Tulsa.  The latest data supports the boundary either washing out or stalling south of the area by late Friday night.  The GFS and EURO have both been suggesting the warm sector will reform Saturday to the north of the state and remain north until late Sunday night as another short wave approaches the area.  But at this point, the data continues to diverge with storm chances for Sunday.  GFS develops storms Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern OK while the EURO is further north.    Both sets bring the front into the area by early Monday with a round of storms likely followed by cooler air into the early part of next week.  We've brought the pops up for the Monday period, but will stick on the low side for Sunday at this moment.  I must remind us that changes to the weekend forecast ( more so Sunday) would definitely be possible.   

Temps today will remain in the mid or upper 80s before coming back into the upper 70s Thursday into Friday.  The weekend numbers will start in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday and top out in the lower 80s.  Sunday's highs will move into the mid-80s if the EURO is correct and the mid 70s with the GFS.  We're siding with the warmer-dryer EURO at this point.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 recorded at 2:15pm.

The normal daily average high is 77 and the low is 56.

Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1918 and the low is 40 from 1931. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

I'll also be on a number of Tulsa metro clear channel radio stations including the Great KMOD, The Twister, The Buzz, and The Beat. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV