Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, March 5th 2014, 4:45 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking two systems over the next 7 days including a chance of light snow later today across portions of the state.  The slight chance for mainly light rain in the Tulsa metro will remain for later tonight.  Temps will remain in the 40s today. 

A fast moving upper level wave is dropping out of the Rockies this morning and will move across the state today.  Light showers may transition to some snow this morning across far northwestern OK before moving to central Ok by the afternoon with light shower activity.  The data suggest the wave will move southeast and weaken later tonight but may still provide some light precipitation chances for our immediate area after the 9pm time frame tonight.  We'll keep the pops in the forecast but have revised the probability down from 70% that we had yesterday to 40%.  A higher pop will remain for the northwestern and central part of the state with some snow likely across northwestern OK.

The clouds will move across the state later today capping the temps at near 40 to 44 for the day across eastern OK.  South winds will shift to the north by later this afternoon around 10 mph.   

Thursday and Fridays highs are tricky!  The data yesterday advertised much cooler air than we had in our Thursday and Friday forecasts.  We made some revisions downward yesterday afternoon, but last night the data arrived suggesting the "warmer" solutions.  We'll side with the compromise "warmer" air for the Friday time period.  This means the highs will be back into the 60s.  The SREF yesterday suggested Fridays high temperature may only reach 50 degrees.  Today the "mean" is back up to 59.  And the GFS MOS is pinging 62.  We'll continue to make adjustments for this period but at this point keep the Friday highs at 66!   

Saturday the next system will arrive across the state with north winds and a chance of light precipitation during the morning to midday period.  The highs will top out around 44 before dropping into the upper 30s by the afternoon.  This portion of the data has also performed a flip regarding precipitation.  The GFS is very dry compared to the last day's runs, but the EURO continues to suggest the pops.  We'll keep them in the forecast for this cycle.   Any snow with this system would occur Saturday evening and mainly across southern Kansas.

The pattern appears to support another system by the middle of next week across the southern plains.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 41 recorded at 5:09pm.

The normal daily average high is now 59 and the low is 37.

Our daily records include a high of 88 recorded on this date in 1991 and a low of 5 from 1960.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.


Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.


Have a super great day!


Alan Crone