Friday Morning Update

Friday, January 31st 2014, 4:46 am
By: Alan Crone

The weather pattern will remain active for the next few days with several precipitation chances across the state including some wintry weather impacts.  We're tracking 3 systems with the first impacting far northern OK and southern Kansas this morning, and portions of eastern OK pre-dawn Saturday   The second system will impact the southern portion of the state with a slight chance of some snow in NE OK.  The third is the strongest of the three and will be nearing the state Tuesday with a rain-sleet-snow mixture for portions of Oklahoma.   

This morning a weak front is located across the northern third of the state with a surface area of low pressure near northern OK. Low quality moisture has been moving northward overnight and some very light drizzle or sprinkles will be possible for the next few hours across southern Kansas and portions of northern OK. Temps along the state line will be near freezing and a few slick spots on elevated surfaces are possible.  Winter weather advisory is posted for the southern Kansas area for the next few hours.   I do not anticipate this to be a major issue. 

This boundary will slide southward today but a broad range of temps will be expected.  Northern OK and southern Kansas will be in the lower 40s or even upper 30s by late today while locations across southern OK could be in the 50s.   Some spots along the Red River Valley may hit the lower 60s this afternoon.

The actual temps in Tulsa may hit the mid or even upper 40s for highs before turning cooler later this afternoon.  

Tonight the boundary gets a shove southward and colder air will move south by pre-dawn Saturday morning.  Very light precipitation is possible after midnight into Saturday morning across eastern OK and western Arkansas.  Temps may near freezing along the 412 corridor with warmer air across southeastern and east central sections of the state.  Some light freezing rain or a light mix would be possible but only for a very short duration in a few locations across NE OK.  The precipitation would move eastward out of the state by early Saturday morning leaving gusty north winds and cold air for Saturday afternoon.  High temperatures Saturday would be near 40 in the Tulsa metro and into the mid or upper 40s across southeastern OK.  There could be some minor travel issues regarding a few slick spots on elevated surfaces across northern OK for a few hours early Saturday morning. This system is not expected to be a major issue.  

A fast moving short wave is expected to move across the Red River Valley by Sunday morning causing additional precipitation to move and expand northeast during the day.  The temp profiles would support rain across north TX with a mix across southeastern OK.  The temp profile across northern OK would support snow but most of the activity may reside slightly south of the area.  The latest model runs have trended southward with this system but some light snow is a possibility along the I-44 corridor Sunday afternoon and evening before the disturbance quickly exits the region Sunday night.   The temps Sunday will be in the 30s state-wide with northeast winds around 15 mph.  This system has been problematic in the data.  A winter weather advisory may be required Sunday across southern OK and possibly a few counties north of I-40.  There remains an outside chance this wave will be stronger than expected but current data continues to suggest the Sunday system would not be a major winter storm.  My confidence remains low regarding this system. 

The third system is still set for Tuesday.  This system is the strongest of the three and may have the larger impact across the state.  But the data has been trending slightly warmer with the temp profile across southern OK and lifts the system rapidly northeast by Tuesday night.  This will create a forecasting headache regarding the placement of some important features regarding the timing and type of precipitation.  Most of the model consensus is now offering mainly rain for southeastern OK with a mix across part of central Ok and some snow across the northeastern portion of the state.  This type of a system usually produces a dry slot which limits precip production.  Currently this dry slot is modeled across the west-central and northwestern portion of the state.  We will continue to make forecast adjustments as the data suggests.  I must stress that major changes to the forecast are still possible and would be expected with the Tuesday system.  A winter storm watch may be required for this system.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 51 recorded at 3:49pm.

The normal daily average high is 50 and the low is 28.

Our daily records include a high of 76 from both 1989 and 1911.  The record low is -5 1911.   

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone