Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 29th 2013, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

Good Morning and Welcome to Black Friday.

If you're reading the Friday Morning weather discussion (at 3:45am), you must be hard core weather!  Just in case you're checking for early Friday morning shopping weather?  It's cold but dry.  Temps will be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s for the next 4 hours with light winds.  Enjoy the shopping.

Now…on to the rest of the forecast. 

We're looking at a sun-cloud mix again today with afternoon highs moving into the mid or even upper 50s.  South winds will increase speeds around the 15 mph range later today.  A small vort max will slide across southern Kansas today into Saturday morning but only produce a few clouds.  Another fast moving vort arrives Sunday and will provide a few clouds with a front moving southward into the state. 

Temperatures this weekend look good.  Morning lows in the 30s will be followed by highs in the upper 50s Saturday to near 60 into the upper 50s Sunday.  Southerly flow will continue this weekend and could bring just enough moisture into the state for a few showers Sunday or Sunday night as a short wave brushes Oklahoma.  This chance remains around 10 % and mainly for extreme Eastern OK.  We could probably get away with no pops on the board, but we'll keep a slight mention for consistency in the data for the Monday morning time period.  

The rest of next week will be focused on another strong surface boundary arriving sometime Wednesday.  GFS and EURO data have both been consistent for many days in the solution of colder air for the middle to end of next week.  But the exact timing regarding the frontal passage is still up for grabs.  The GFS is Wednesday morning while the EURO is late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  We'll side with the faster solution.  Some low level moisture will also be pooling by Tuesday and Wednesday across the eastern sections of the state.  Thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage, but the higher chances may reside southeast of the Tulsa area.   

The cold air will continue to invade the state from Thursday into the weekend.  The upper air flow will still be favorable for bringing moisture up and over the shallow cold dome at the surface.  This would result in some kind of wintry precipitation threat by Friday.  At this point, however, the prudent call will be no on air mentions since we're at least 7 to 9 days away and we'll confine the mentions to this discussion post. The shallow cold air at the surface with the southwest flow atop leads more to ice than snow.  Stay tuned.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 57 recorded at 3:56pm.

The normal daily average high is 54 and the low is 34.

The daily records include a high of82 from 1927 and a low of 10 from 1976. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone