Wednesday Morning Update

Good Morning.  Grab the big coat again today!  Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with abundant sunshine.  Temperatures are in the teens to lower 20s this morning across northern OK and southern Kansas with freezing temperatures extending southward through the Red River Valley.  A hard freeze warning will remain through the 10am-11am hour before readings are expected to move above the freezing threshold.  Warmer air will follow into the weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  

The arctic air mass will remain entrenched across NE OK for the morning hours before sliding eastward this afternoon and tomorrow.  The strong surface ridge of high pressure is near NE OK this morning but will move across portions of Arkansas and the middle Tennessee valley during the next 12 to 36 hours.  Southwest surface winds on the back of the high will bring slightly warmer afternoon readings today with highs in near 50.  Some locations south of the Tulsa will be closer to the lower 50s.  A warming trend will remain this weekend with morning lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s with daytime highs in the upper 60s Saturday and possibly in the lower 70s Sunday!  

A series of disturbances will approach the southern and central plains during the next 36 to 72 hours.  The main trough will be positioned across the western half of the country but small disturbances will rotate around the base and eject across the southern plains.  The first one will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning, but our low level moisture is expected to be very low.  This means any precipitation that falls would more than likely evaporate across NE OK.  Slightly better moisture will reside across NE TX and SE OK and a few showers may be more likely  in these areas Thursday night into Friday morning.  The chance of any showers or sprinkles in NE OK remains very low but we'll keep a slight mention in the forecast. This chance is near or less than 10%.  

The next disturbance will arrive Saturday with a higher chance for showers and even thunderstorms.  GFS data continue to support a more robust moisture return Friday into Saturday with strong south winds advecting ( moving moisture horizontally) across the southern plains.  Some instability appears possible across Eastern OK and a few thunderstorms will be likely.  This Saturday wave will move eastward by the evening hours and should push some of the moisture southward across NE TX and western Arkansas. 

Sunday the entire main trough across the inter-mountain region will begin moving eastward and south winds will once again attempt to move the moisture back into the state.  Here's where the data continues to diverge.   

Some data keeps most of the precip to the southeast of Tulsa while another set supports more thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday for the eastern half of the state.  We'll keep the chance around 30% for Sunday evening but higher chances will reside to the southeast of the state.

Both sets of data support another strong cold front moving across the state Monday with cold air lasting through Wednesday.  This would knock lows back into the 20s with Monday and Tuesday highs mainly in the mid-40s.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 43 recorded at 12:08am.

The normal daily average high is 62 and the low is 41.

Daily records include a high of 84 from 1910 and a low of 12 from 1940. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV