Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, October 3rd 2013, 4:32 am

We're tracking a few small showers across far southeastern OK this morning and a decaying complex of thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska.  Both of these areas of precipitation should dissipate during the next two to three hours.   South winds and low-level moisture have kept the overnight lows near 70 degrees.  I anticipate afternoon highs approaching 90 today with gusty south winds.  High temperatures tomorrow will also be near 90 before a strong cold front arrives Friday night with rain and storm chances.  A few storms may be strong to severe.  Some lingering showers will be possible during the early Saturday morning time period.   Much cooler air will follow for Saturday and Sunday.  

A powerful upper level system is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest with a surface cold front developing over the Rockies.  This front is expected to enter Northwestern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and move into the north central and north eastern part of the state by early Friday evening.  Very strong dynamics will be positioned across the Central High Plains and severe weather is more likely across portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa tomorrow afternoon and evening but there will be a narrow window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma Friday evening.   

 The timing of the front in the model data is inconsistent but I believe the front will enter our immediate northern areas as early as 6 pm or as late as 10 pm.  Locations south of Tulsa could experience shower and thunderstorm activity between 8 pm and 3am.   Model data indicates the activity may become increasingly post frontal by late Friday night into Saturday morning.   This would greatly reduce the severe weather threat.  Friday night football games could be impacted by this cold front but the confidence on the exact timing still remains low.   

 Gusty northwest winds will follow the frontal passage for Saturday allowing much cooler air to invade the entire state.  Saturday morning temperatures in the 50s will be followed by highs in the mid 60's.  Morning clouds and leftover showers will give way to decreasing clouds and some sun by Saturday afternoon.  

Sunday morning temperatures maybe the coolest of the early fall season with readings in the lower to mid-forties including the Tulsa Metro.  Sunday afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 60s near 70 with abundant sunshine and light winds.   

 Early next week temperatures will be expected to move back into the 70's and 80's.  Another cold front will arrive around Friday with additional rain and thunderstorm chances. 

 The official high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 86 recorded at 2:55pm.

 The normal daily average high is 77 and the low is 55.

Daily records include a high of 95 from 1963 and a low of 37 from 2010.  

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 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone