As we turned the calendar over to October, our cool air gave way to muggy conditions. South winds are bringing back moisture to the outer bounds of Green Country. This is why many of us awoke to low clouds, fog, and mild temperatures. We are now in a weather pattern that reinforces the warmth and moisture through the end of the week.
The jet stream, for now, is displaced much further to the north than is usual for early October. Warm air with an open fetch of Gulf moisture is spilling northward, giving us this unseasonable warm up. This is also allowing a weak upper-level disturbance to lift northward and bring us a shot of showers and thunderstorms. The center of this unsettled weather will be over Arkansas Wednesday, so our best chance of rain lies in that direction (refer to the first map).
Outside of this minor disturbance, little change in our weather is expected until Friday. We may even tie or break a record warm low in the coming days. Needless to say, you won't need a jacket if you're heading out to the Tulsa Fair for the next couple days and may be resorting to frozen goodies to stay cool!
This comes to an abrupt end on Friday. A strong cold front associated with a dip in an energy-charged jet stream will barrel into the region. This will cause a potential line of strong to briefly severe thunderstorms with the threat of high winds. Our warm, moist air will quickly give way to cool, blustery conditions, more typical of fall. Our upper 80s will gave way to upper 60s for highs and down into the 40s for lows.
In the spirit of the Tulsa State Fair, our temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride for some time to come… we're just at a large crest in the ride. Enjoy the warm spell!