Wednesday Morning Update

Hello and welcome to Wednesday morning.  Today's afternoon temperatures should move back into the mid 90's but increasing clouds will be the call later today.  A few scattered showers will be a possibility across extreme southern and eastern Oklahoma later this afternoon.  A weak upper level system is nearby this morning and will provide an opportunity for a few showers to our south.  The probability for showers or storms in our immediate area today is near five percent.  The atmosphere is continuing to change and a cold front will approach our area later tomorrow with a slight chance for a few showers or storms.  This system will not be a big rain maker for our area.  

 The mid-level Ridge of high-pressure is located to the south/southeast of the area this morning and continues to weaken.  Low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is attempting to move across East Texas into eastern Oklahoma later today.  A weak cold front is located north of the state this morning but should arrive across southern Kansas later this evening.  Latest data indicates the front will slide southward Thursday afternoon into northern Oklahoma.  The better chance for showers or thunderstorms may occur to the north northwest of our immediate area but we'll be in the running for some precip in northern OK.  The data would support most showers Thursday across the northern third of the state and Friday across the southern third.  The probability Thursday and Friday will remain near 20 percent on the 7 day planner.  Most data support the boundary residing along or near the Red River Valley by Friday afternoon.  Northeast winds will be common Friday with temperatures back in the mid and upper 80's with some clouds across the region.  Computer model numbers indicate highs around 86 Friday afternoon, and this seems good to me.   

 At this point in the forecast process Friday night football looks pleasant.   

 Weekend numbers will feature morning lows in the 60's and daytime highs in the upper 80's near 90.  Another system may approach the area Sunday night into early next week bringing another chance for showers in storms.  Data also support temperatures slightly below the normal average for early next week.  The wild card for our forecast early next week is a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.  A disturbance currently located near Cancun may become a tropical system as it moves north northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours.  If grows to tropical storm status its name would be Ingrid.    

 We're tracking two other named systems this morning in the Atlantic.  Tropical storm Gabrielle will be threatening Bermuda while hurricane Humberto will remain in the far Eastern Atlantic.    

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 95 recorded at 3:13pm.

The normal average high is 86 and the low is 64.

Records include a high of 103 from 1909 and a low of 45 from 1940.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone