Tuesday, August 6th 2013, 4:19 pm
Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right, valid through Tuesday morning of next week. There continues to be a strong N-S gradient of moisture with the heaviest rainfall possibilities still centered just across the state line into KS and a sharp drop-off to the south from there. Even so, much of N OK is in the running for an inch or more of rainfall during that period while our neighbors to the north will likely be dealing with additional flooding problems.
Although there will be some day to day changes, it looks like a rather active pattern will be the general rule with most of the focus just to the north. In fact, another round of showers/storms is expected to develop this evening/night in the general vicinity of the Panhandle/far W KS and then move eastward into the morning hours of Wed. Most of that will again be along/N of the OK/KS state line with only very slight chances further south.
That means Wed will be another hot/humid day with daytime temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values at or above 105 which is into dangerous territory. However, the pattern aloft will be undergoing some subtle changes over the next few days which should allow a better chance of showers/storms further south for the Wed night/ Thu time frame and perhaps into the weekend as well.
Those changes aloft will allow a frontal boundary to sag a little further southward into the state where it will eventually stall out. That will also provide a better focus for showers/storms right on through the weekend and into the coming week as well. In fact, all the longer range guidance suggests we will remain in a relatively active pattern through next week with almost daily chances of showers/storms here in OK as well as into KS. That also means a bit of a break in the heat although the humidity will still be a factor.
Temperatures will be near triple digits both today and tomorrow, mid 90s on Thursday, and closer to 90 for Fri/Sat. As mentioned, the humidity will make it feel much warmer with heat index values well into triple digits today and tomorrow and heat advisories/warnings are in place for that. Then a bit of a break with temperatures expected to be at or below normal through the weekend and closer to normal for much of next week.
Quite a contrast to the last couple of summers.
Dick Faurot
August 6th, 2013
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