Tuesday Morning Update

Good Morning!  Another warm to hot afternoon is expected with highs nearing 100 both today and tomorrow.  A few storms will be possible Wednesday through Friday.  

The temperatures will continue to climb in the short term with mid to upper 90s today and 100 to 103 readings tomorrow.  Our friends from the National Weather Service in Tulsa have issued a heat advisory for portions of northeastern OK and an excessive heat warning may be issued for the Wednesday time period when temp heat index values (THI) may range from 105 to112.  A weak boundary will arrive Wednesday afternoon or evening across part of northern OK providing a focus for some thunderstorm activity.  This boundary may also allow additional clouds to eventually take the edge off the temps for Thursday and Friday before the boundary becomes diffuse.  The chance for thunderstorm activity will remain somewhat low, mainly around the 20% to 30% range Wednesday into Thursday.  If storms do form or move into your area, a few may be strong to severe with damaging downbursts of wind the threat. 

The weak boundary will be positioned across northern OK through Friday morning and may also continue to provide a slight chance of isolated storms during this period.  Some of the model data suggest a weak disturbance may scoot across the state late Thursday night into Friday morning.  I'll resist the urge to bring this pop up and continue only a very slight chance of storms Friday morning and Saturday morning across northern OK. Weekend storm chances will remain near or less than 10% probabilities.  

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is centered west of our area but has expanded eastward across part of the state.  Southerly surface winds have been increasing low level moisture in the form of higher dew point temperatures from the Gulf northward into Texas.  Some of this rich moisture will arrive today and tomorrow in advance of the surface front located well north of the state today.  Temperature heat index values could move into the dangerous category over the next 36 hours due to the above weather parameters. 

The ridge is expected to weaken slightly and possibly slide northward this weekend which may also take the temps back down into the lower or mid 90s for daytime highs with morning lows in the lower 70s.  Some dry air to our north could briefly slide southward Friday afternoon into the early portion of the weekend to provide some temporary relief this weekend.  The mid to long range data support the ridge to re-establish over or near the area next week with increasing temp profiles again over the area.   

The National Hurricane Center is tracking an Atlantic basin storm.  Tropical storm Chantal is expected to move westward for the next few days possibly approaching the Cuba to Florida vicinity around Friday or Saturday.  The official forecast calls for this system to remain below hurricane status through the next 96 hours and keep its tropical storm status.  Additional updates can be found on my Facebook FAN page.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 96 recorded at 3:24pm.  The normal daily average high is 93 and the low is 73.  Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1925 and a low of 59 from both 1952 and 1947. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone 

You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations across the state through the noon hour.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV