Thursday Morning Update

The upper air flow will be conducive to one more chance of showers and storms across the area today before the pattern changes but our probability will be on the low side.   The pattern change will bring the heat and humid weather back to northern OK and greatly limit our rain and storm chances.  This morning we're tracking a "chance" for a few showers and storms across southern Kansas and northeastern OK.   I'll keep a chance in the forecast for this probability through the early afternoon, but the latest runs of the high resolution keeps most of the storm activity away from our area.  We may see a few showers or storms right along the OK-Kansas state line early this morning, but the mid-level ridge may also be expanding by midday and would keep the precip moving away from our area.  Yesterday's runs of some of the NAM indicated a MCS forming across Northern Kansas moving southeast by midday.  But if the latest guidance is correct, the ridge will be nudging northward and would steer this complex into western Missouri.  Only time will tell for sure regarding the pop forecast today, but I'll only keep a slight chance in the forecast.  

The daytime highs should be around the upper 80s or near 90 with south winds around 10 to 20 mph.  The mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the southern plains taking away our organized storm chances for the area but the future pattern will allow for a few late afternoon storms to develop across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas on a daily basis.  The chance is extremely low for any given location and will not be placed on the big 7 day planner graphic.   

The medium to extended data suggest the ridge may change shape slightly by Monday and reform the center to our west by Tuesday or Wednesday while expanding the grasp of the sinking and compressing air.  This pattern would represent the possibility of triple digit temps across far northwestern OK, SE Colorado, and western Kansas.  The heat will build across Northeastern OK but recent rainfall and lush green vegetation will offset the potential temperature and keep us in the mid-90s next week.  The increased moisture in the lower levels due to evapotranspiration will lead to heat index values nearing 105 by the middle of next week.  These readings would be near the criteria for heat index advisories for part of the area.  The ridge may be far enough west late next week ( Friday into next weekend) to create a small northwest flow window for extreme northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.   

 Our high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 3:12pm.

The normal average daily high is 89 and the low is 69.

Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1918 and a low of 53 from 1976.

You'll hear my forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.

I'll also be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.   https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone