Tuesday Morning Update

Welcome to a preview of summer-like weather.  I'll keep the discussion on the short side today. Our highs yesterday reached into the lower and mid-90s, and we'll expect more of the same today and tomorrow with afternoon readings well above our normal high of 86.  A weak boundary may slide near the Tulsa area early Thursday morning, but the rain and storm chances will be less than 10% for this time period. Temps may drop a few degrees Thursday, but the temperature heat index value will remain near 100 regardless of the temp drop. Morning lows are expected to remain in the upper 60s in the rural areas to the lower 70s in the Tulsa metro.  The upper air pattern will undergo a change this weekend into early next week allowing for a chance of a few storms in the forecast.  

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is the main feature of interest across the southern plains while the polar jet has migrated northward.  This is a typical pattern for late June and early July, and we are slightly ahead of schedule with this upper air feature across our area.  As I posted yesterday, I do not think this is the big "death ridge" that will continue to build for the entire summer bringing the heat and choking out any organized storm chances.  We're already seeing consistent signals that our ridge will slide eastward while weakening this weekend and a short wave trough will slide across the central plains while brushing part of northern OK and southeastern Kansas.   we'll eventually be adding a slight chance of showers and storms for the weekend forecast.  

The pattern (mid-level ridge) may flatten next week and reform to the west or southwest allowing another small window of northwest flow aloft over the state.  This would allow a few storm systems to brush the state around Monday through Wednesday with organized storm chances across the northern portion of the state with even higher chances across southern Kansas.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 95 recorded at 4:24 pm.

The normal daily average high is 86 and the low is 67.

Our daily records include a high of 100 from 1924 and a low of 51 recorded on this date in 1955.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa this morning.  

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV