Thursday Morning Update

The mid-level circulation is positioned near the area this morning and as expected, overnight convection has remained near and southeast of this center located to our south.  We're seeing some showers on the back side the low this morning near OKC.  Later this morning, some additional showers or storms may attempt to develop near or east of the circulation for a few hours before moving eastward out of the region later this afternoon.  This will account for near 40% to 50% pop on the 7 day planner for today, with some higher probabilities for extreme eastern sections of the state.  After highs will more than likely remain in the mid-70s along with mostly cloudy conditions and south winds.  Warmer air will be position across western OK.  Our next major system will be nearing the area by the second half of the weekend, but before this trough arrives, a dry line across western OK may crank up a few storms near the area Friday and Saturday. 

The dry line will remain across far western OK Friday and may slide slightly eastward Saturday or Sunday.  Most of the scattered storms will remain well west of our immediate area, but a few could slide eastward before running into a stout mid-level capping inversion which should weaken or even kill the storms.  Locations west of I-35 will have a chance of super cellular thunderstorms Saturday.  Our chances for our immediate area will remain near or below 10% for both Friday and Saturday.  Despite the low probabilities, we should all remain aware of the weather this weekend, just in case one of these storms does manage to survive into our area.

 Sunday into Monday could be a severe weather outbreak across the central and part of the southern plains states as a major upper level trough slides near the central U.S.  Several days of southerly flow will advect low level moisture from the Gulf into the plains states helping to increase the convective available potential energy.  The upper level system will approach the region allowing for strong winds aloft increasing speeds with height and changing direction from the surface to the mid-levels of the atmosphere.  These conditions will allow for super cell thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes.  We're still several days away from this time period, but model data continues to suggest the potential for severe weather.  The data may undergo changes that could change the severe weather threat, but for now, we'll encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings for the Sunday, Monday, and even Tuesday time period across the central and southern plains, including portions of Northern OK and Southern Kansas.   

Once the trough clears the area, some slightly cooler air will follow behind a frontal passage Tuesday with highs back into the 70s.  Before this occurs, our temps Friday will move back into the mid-80s and near 90 Saturday and Sunday.  Gusty south winds will be common.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 11:20am.

The normal daily average high is79 and the low is 59.

Daily records today include a high of 94 from 1931 and 1911.  The low is 40 recorded from 1907.

 You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather discussion forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hour. 

Additionally, I'll be discussing our storm chances this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News through the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

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Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV