Wednesday Morning Update

Did you turn on that air conditioner yesterday afternoon?  We hit 91 in Tulsa for the high with other locations in the upper 80s.  Southwest winds around 15 to 25 mph were common with full sunshine for the day.  Our forecast becomes a little more centered on thunderstorm chances for the next few days as we track two systems.  The first one will be arriving today and exiting tomorrow midday with the second and stronger system brushing the state Sunday into Monday. 

Our forecast today and tomorrow will continue to call for a chance for scattered thunderstorms across part of southern and eastern OK as a weak mid-level wave draws closer to the region.  Low level moisture will be increasing today and tomorrow but the main upper level system will be weakening as it moves eastward.  The better location for thunderstorms will occur just south of our immediate areas of concern, but we're going to keep a decent shot of storms in the forecast for the Tulsa vicinity and Eastern OK both today and tomorrow.  The weak dynamics with this system will keep the severe weather threat somewhat low, but it will not be zero.  More organized severe weather will be possible across the north TX area closer to deeper moisture and also near a surface area of low pressure.  Temps today will be around 80 or so for the afternoon high due to the influence of the system and the added cloud cover across the area.  Upper 70s will be common across southeastern OK. 

Thursday some scattered storms may be possible during the early to midday time period with mostly cloudy conditions.  This should also keep the highs mainly in the upper 70s.  Because this system is being driven by a mid-level low, we'll keep the southerly flow through the entire system.  This means low level moisture will continue to flow into the southern plains through the end of the week and then further northward into the central plains states this weekend.   

By the weekend, a major upper level trough will be approaching the area with very strong upper air dynamics.  The low level moisture is expected to be of high quality and sufficiently deep in the atmosphere to provide a chance for severe storms.  A dry line will be located well west of the area this weekend with a surface boundary sliding across part of central Kansas.  A surface area of low pressure will be anchored near the SW Kansas area through the weekend while the main forcing from the upper air system slides across the central plains states.  Severe weather will be likelihood with this system, but the big question will be how far southward will the forcing impact the moisture?  Most models keep most of the precip to the north of our immediate area Sunday, but we'll keep a decent shot of thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday into Monday, and will mention the possibility of severe weather.  Before this system nears the area, we'll keep isolated storm chances in the Friday and Saturday time periods, but the higher probability (40% at this point) will be confined for Sunday into Monday.   

The GFS and EURO are still somewhat different on the early part of next week, but we'll keep a slight chance of storms in the Tuesday time slot at this point with temps cooling into the mid or upper 70s Tuesday.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 91 recorded at 1:20pm.

The normal daily average high is 79 and the low is 59.

Our daily record high is 95 from 1911 and the low is 35 from 1907.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing my state-wide and regional forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state through the noon hour.

You'll hear my Tulsa metro forecast on The KRMG Morning News with Dan Potter through the midday time period.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV