Friday Morning Update

Expect some early morning sun from Tulsa to the west followed by increasing clouds and another chance of some showers later tonight and early Saturday morning.  The clouds may linger for most of the day across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas. Highs today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s East and mid-50s to upper 50s  from Tulsa to the west. .  There remains a chance for some light precip overnight across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  Some of this precip will linger into the first half of Saturday.  

Our friends at the National Weather Service office in Tulsa made it official yesterday afternoon:   A few snow flurries were detected yesterday and a new record was established in Tulsa with a trace of snow registered in the record book!  The previous record was a trace of snow recorded from April 18, 1953.  The radar is detecting some wintry precip this morning on the far NE OK and NW Ark state line area northward into southwestern Missouri where winter weather advisory remains in effect for the next few hours.  Yes, the soil temps are very warm from the recent spring weather, but some accumulation has more than likely occurred on the grassy areas in the advisory area.  

Our freeze watch from yesterday was upgraded to a freeze warning yesterday evening for the overnight and early Friday morning hours.  The clouds have been attempting to clear from the west to east overnight across the state.  This has allowed temps to drop into lower 30s near  and west of Tulsa, but still above freezing for many locations near Tulsa to the east.  Slightly higher dew points this morning may prove to keep us just above the freezing mark, but it will be close.   Counties southeast of Tulsa are not expected to drop below freezing this morning.   

We're looking for highs in the upper 40s far eastern OK  and lower to mid 50s this afternoon across our immediate area with some partial sun this morning and increasing clouds this afternoon.  Gusty northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph will remain possible for the today with wind speeds decreasing Saturday and Sunday.   

One of the big forecasting headaches this past week as been the overall evolution of the major upper level "cut off" low that is currently over the state.  This low formed at the base of the main upper level trough that moved across the intermountain region during the past two days.  The low has become "cut off" from the main upper level flow and will reside near or just northeast of Tulsa today and tomorrow before re-joining the upper air flow and sliding eastward.  There remain some differences regarding the EURO-GFS-NAM positioning over the next 24 hours but for the most part, the consensus of the data would support another chance for some precipitation in the short term, mainly overnight into the first half of Saturday.   

I think most of the day we'll be void of showers, but later tonight, a wave of energy will pin-wheel around the upper level low and generate lift across SW MO, SE Kansas, and part of NE OK.  This will create some showers across SE Kansas that will move southward (basically) across Northeastern OK sometime overnight into Saturday morning.  The temps aloft through (down) to the mid-level of the atmosphere will be sub-freezing and could support another batch of some wintry precip.  But the very lowest layer of the atmosphere may be just warm enough to keep the event all liquid.  I'll keep the chance for light precip on the 7 day planner for later tonight into the first half of Saturday across the northeastern third of the state.   

Temps Saturday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s but freezing temps are not expected to be widespread due to the influence of clouds and a west or northwest breeze pre-dawn Saturday morning.  There may be some localized areas of sub-freezing temps north of Tulsa across far SE Kansas, but even this is a stretch.  

The afternoon readings should turn the corner and move into the lower or mid-50s, but the RAW NAM continues to suggest the presence of mostly cloudy conditions for the afternoon.  This could keep the highs around 49 to 50 but we'll be optimistic at this point and continue the keep the highs in the lower to mid-50s. 

Because the upper level low will still be near our area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, I will mention a slight chance of some light precip.  This should not be a big deal, and I will not include this pop on the 7 day graphic.  Temps by Sunday afternoon will be in the 60s.  Finally!

The upper air pattern will undergo a change early next week that will actually resemble spring.  Eventually we'll see a southwest upper air flow, another upper level system near or south of the four corners area, and increasing southerly surface low with warming temps and increasing low level moisture.  This will set the stage for thunderstorms sometime next week, but the confidence on the exact time period is extremely low.  There may be a few showers or storms Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface area of low pressure forms to our west and temps move into the upper 70s near 80.  Later in the week, both the EURO and GFS in the mid-level flow depict the potential for a strong system  to influence the southern plains with thunderstorms.  Our severe weather season has been relatively quiet not only in the state, but across the country.  I'll remind us that it only takes one day to change that statistic. 

The official high in Tulsa was 

But as you well know, most of the day was spent in the lower to mid 40s.

The normal high for today in Tulsa is and the low is

Daily records include a low of and a high of

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You'll hear our forecast today along with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.

I'll be discussing the weather this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thanks again for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

If you're new to the discussion, I post every weekday morning, usually before 5am. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone