Tuesday Morning Update

Well.  First let's talk about the nice weather we're going to experience today.  After morning lows in the lower to mid-30s, we'll move into the lower and mid-60s along with northeast winds this morning and southwest winds this afternoon.  Some high clouds may occur today, but enough sunshine should occur allowing us to get into the mid-60s.  A cold front will slide across the area tonight bringing gusty north winds, some cloud cover, and cooler air.  We'll be back into the mid-50s for Wednesday afternoon highs.  Speaking of Wednesday, the official start of " spring" occurs this Wednesday morning.  The weather will not be very spring like for the rest of the week.  We think it will be more like winter, and yes, there may be a chance of SNOW this weekend.  Goodness! 

The upper air pattern will be allowing for a surface low pressure area to form late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the high plains of TX into the OK panhandle region.  East to southeast winds will allow moisture to increase across northern OK Thursday morning, and some scattered showers and storms will be possible and even likely during this time period.  Yesterday, almost all model guidance indicated this surface low position would move rapidly southeast into north TX Thursday evening allowing for northeast surface winds to bring colder air back into the northern third of the state.  Today, the GFS has pulled a "crazy Ivan" and is now holding the surface low northward through Saturday.  This would create big changes in the weekend forecast including warmer air than our current forecast.  But, I'll not go through all the different scenarios at this hour.  Basically we're siding with the EURO for better or worse.

This means our forecast from yesterday remains intact through the Friday with a wet and cold weather pattern unfolding.   Early Friday morning, some moisture may fall in the form of light sleet across extreme NE OK, but we think this will still mainly be rain across much of our area.  After Friday morning, the cold air will stick around for the weekend.  Here's where it really gets interesting. 

The last few runs of both the EURO and the GFS have hinted at some snow potential for Saturday afternoon and evening across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  The data has not been consistent when comparing "run to run" output.  The main upper level flow will bring an upper level low very close to northern OK by Saturday afternoon and evening with the EURO bringing the low directly over central Ok Sunday morning.  The GFS is further north and keeps the upper level low across northwestern Kansas.  This position would have very little impact regarding wintry precip for the northern OK Saturday night or Sunday while the EURO would have significant snowfall potential into Sunday morning across NE OK.  I'll attempt to use very "guarded" language and descriptors since these data may still flip around quite a bit before we draw near the weekend.   

Bottom line:  enjoy the spring like weather today.  Winter's last stand is right around the corner. 

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 62 recorded at 4:25pm.

The normal daily average is63 and the low is 41.

Our daily records include a high of 96 from 1907 and a low of 8 from 1923.

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.

You'll also hear my statewide and regional forecasts on many of the Radio Oklahoma News network affiliate stations throughout the state this morning.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV