The updated QPF map on the right is starting to be a little more generous with respect to our rainfall potential over the next few days, but don't get your hopes up too high. That may change yet again as the storm system we are watching has yet to be sampled by our observational network. It is still out over the Pacific Ocean where satellite imagery and some occasional airplane observations are about all we have to go on at this time.
Our first chance of getting wet will be tonight into the day Sunday when a lead disturbance aloft will be quickly moving through with most of its energy directed more to our north into KS. That is where the better chances of rain will be although there will be at least a few showers around for later tonight and into the morning of Sunday. What does fall will be very light this time around.
A few showers will also be possible on Monday, particularly for the more SE counties, but the chances are still only 20% or less. Our best bet still looks to be on Tuesday as a stronger cold front will be pushing across the state during the day and there will also be some support aloft. Right now, it appears that showers/storms will be developing around the noon hour and quickly moving on eastward. The lack of a closed circulation aloft and a unidirectional wind flow near the surface will probably keep the severe potential low although a wind/hail threat cannot be ruled out. Since storm development will likely be near our immediate area, that will have a lot to do with how much rain we actually end up with. If the storms form further west, more rain can be expected; but if further east, that would diminish the amounts. At least there is a chance.
It will also be extremely mild for the next few days with gusty southerly winds keeping temperatures in the 40s tonight and near 60 for the next couple of nights. Those numbers will be close to record levels for the overnight lows and our daytime highs will be quite mild as well. We should be well into the 60s Sunday, the 70s on Monday, and near 70 on Tuesday before the cold front arrives. The timing on the cold front will determine how warm we are that afternoon as temperatures will be quickly falling after the winds shift back to the north behind the boundary.
The rest of the week will then be back to the real world with more seasonal temperatures anticipated. Also, it looks like a dry forecast for the latter part of the week and going into the coming weekend.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.