Friday Morning Update

Friday, December 28th 2012, 6:32 am

Cloudy and cold conditions will prevail through early afternoon along with some light wintry precipitation including snow across part but not all of the area.  As a short wave aloft moves eastward this morning, the clouds will begin to clear later this afternoon but highs will remain in the lower to mid-30s for afternoon highs. We may see some sun late this afternoon after some midday snow!  The pattern is expected to remain very active through the first part of next week including the chance of rain Monday.

A band of snow developed early this morning across western OK and is moving eastward producing some light snow.  Some minor accumulation will be possible as the snow band moves across the eastern third of the state including the Tulsa metro.  Snow reports from the I-35 area including the OKC metro reveal about a half inch to an inch of snowfall this morning.  A winter weather advisory will remain in effect for part of central and eastern OK as this small disturbance moves across the area this afternoon. 

The main flow aloft will be transitioning to a southwest flow pattern across the state by early next week.  This pattern in early January can lead to increased chances for wintry precipitation, but our first indication in the model data is for increasing rain chances for Monday across the state with temps above freezing.  As the upper level system passes the region Monday evening, some colder air will quickly filter into the state with north winds.  There remains a very slight chance for some wintry precip to develop Tuesday morning through midday but the confidence remains very low at this point in the forecast cycle.  We'll briefly make mention of this possibility for the Tuesday time period "on air "this morning. Current data would take the moisture quickly east before the colder air spills into the region.  

The rest of next week remains controversial regarding the specific forecast but the trend for colder air is secure.   The EURO had been suggesting the main upper level system would become more of a closed low hanging back to the west of the state until Thursday evening or Friday while the GFS quickly moved the entire long wave trough eastward taking the precip chances away from the region Tuesday morning.  Both sets of data suggest another cold air mass will be in place Wednesday through Friday of next week.  The upper air flow has been relatively fast the past few weeks which would give credence to the faster and more progressive GFS solution.  But we can't rule out the EURO pulling a "crazy Ivan" and bringing precipitation back into the region with the cold air in place late next week.  We'll keep you posted here if the data continues to lend any confidence to this matter.   

The weekend appears in great shape with Saturday morning lows in the teens and highs near 40.  Sunday south winds will increase but sunshine will be abundant along with highs near 45 before clouds increase Sunday evening and our rain chances kick into high gear Monday.


Yesterdays high officially was 37  in Tulsa recorded at 3:27pm.

The normal daily average high is 47 with a low of 28.

Our daily records include a high of 74 from 1928 and a low of 0 from 1924.


You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

Twitter  @alancrone


I'll also be discussing the weather several times this morning through the early afternoon on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliate stations.


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