Monday Morning Update

Monday, December 3rd 2012, 5:26 am
By: Alan Crone

Unseasonably warm and windy conditions will continue today with temperatures climbing to record highs across eastern OK.  Daytime temps should move into the upper 70s despite an increase in cloud cover today.  A cold front arrives this evening bringing slightly cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday but temperatures will still be above the normal high! A few showers or storms will be possible this evening near and behind the boundary with slightly higher chances across far eastern and southeastern OK.  Severe weather is not anticipated due to the lack of deep layer shear.   Surface moisture may also be shunted slightly eastward this afternoon as surface winds display a veering profile from the southwest.  

The main upper air flow will continue to be somewhat zonal for the next few days keeping most of the active weather zones north of our area.  This zonal flow (west to east) usually doesn't last long, and should "buckle" by the end of the week into the weekend as a long wave trough develops across the western U.S.  We're seeing signs in the weather data that suggest a boundary will be near the state Thursday evening into Friday, but should stall across northern OK during this period.  This boundary may lift northward Saturday into Sunday before a strong upper level trough drives a surface cold front into the state Sunday evening.  The temperature forecast may change a little for Friday through Sunday as we try to pin down the exact location of this stalling boundary.  We're also going to keep a slight chance of a few showers in the forecast for this time period but this precip would be mainly in the form of light showers or possibly some drizzle.

The Sunday evening cold front will bring a sharply colder air mass to the region for early next week with Monday morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs near 40.  Most data suggests our moisture content will leave the region before the colder air moves across the state. 

Extended trend data would also support a somewhat active weather pattern unfolding next week that could bring a few storm systems into the state.  We're still in the middle of a significant drought and our fire danger will continue to increase if we don't get some precipitation soon.


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Alan Crone