Monday Morning Update

Monday, November 5th 2012, 5:36 am
By: Alan Crone

We're in nice shape for the next few days regarding our weather.  A fast moving upper level disturbance will move across NE Ok, SE Kansas, SW Mo, and NW Arkansas this afternoon with a chance of some sprinkles or brief showers/storms east of the Tulsa metro.  We'll keep the mention in the forecast of 20% chances for our neighbors to the east of Tulsa, but the areas near and west of Tulsa will only be included for a 10 pop.  The cold air aloft with this system could produce some scattered thunderstorms closer to the upper level low, but this would be expected well east of Tulsa. This upper level disturbance will swing across the southern U.S. over the next 24 hours before moving up the east coast by midweek inducing another Nor-Easter for our neighbors along the East Coast.  

As our system exits the region later this evening, we'll start a warming trend for the rest of the week. Morning lows in the 40s and 50s will be followed by highs in the upper 70s Thursday and Friday.  Our next system will be approaching the southern plains this weekend with a good chance of thunderstorms and colder air Sunday.  The timing of the system will change in the data, but seems to be clustered on a Sunday frontal passage.  We'll begin the probabilities at 40%, but this number will increase as the confidence factor increases with each model run.  Data also supports temps falling from the lower 60s Sunday morning into the lower 50s by late Sunday afternoon with gusty north winds.  We'll " invert" these temps on the day 7 panel, just to highlight the potential for much cooler air arriving behind the system.  We're obviously early in the forecast process for this system, and may end up switching these temps around with subsequent forecast updates.   

Our official high Sunday in Tulsa was 69 recorded at 3:02pm. 

The normal average high is 66 and the low is 44.  Our daily records include a high of 87 from 1914 and a record of low 25 from 1976.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

Twitter  @alancrone


Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion.

Have a super great day.



Alan Crone