Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, November 1st 2012, 5:19 am
By: Alan Crone

A few clouds may briefly slide across the state today but I expect another sunny and mild day with highs in the upper 70s from Tulsa eastward and lower 80s near I-35.  A surface ridge of high pressure will be located east of our region and southwest surface winds will develop in the 10 mph range at midday.  A weak cold front is still scheduled for Saturday, but our low level moisture field is expected to be limited.  Our chances for showers and storms will remain near 10% for Northern OK and Southern Kansas with a higher probability across far southern OK and Northeast Texas.  

The mid-level ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Rockies will begin to break down as an upper level low near or just west of Oregon will begin moving eastward.  This low will cause surface pressures to fall near and east of the Rockies and south winds will begin increasing speeds during the next 24 to 48 hours across the central and southern plains.   

Southwest winds Friday in the 15 to 25 mph range combined with dry vegetation will lead to an elevated fire danger.  Afternoon highs tomorrow may reach to near record levels with highs nearing 86 in Tulsa.  

The main upper level dynamic energy with our next system is expected to remain north, but this low will bring a surface boundary into the region pre-dawn Saturday morning near Tulsa and moving into southern OK by midday to late afternoon.  A few showers or storms will be possible, but the latest data continues to suggest our probability will remain very low.    

Sunday morning temps will be in the lower 40s with highs in the mid-60s along with northeast winds.   

Our pattern will keep mild air across the region early next week before another system approaches around the middle to end of next week.  The data differs regarding the Tue and Wednesday surface pattern with the EURO and GFS being a day apart with wind direction and temps.  I'll use a blend approach at this point.  The pattern would suggest a system approaching by next weekend.  

Our temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 69 recorded at 4:07pm.

The normal average high is 68 and the normal low is 46.

Daily records include a high of 85 from 1916 and a record low of 25 from 1991 and 1925.


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Thanks for reading the morning discussion.


Alan Crone