Monday Morning Update

The cold air mass that resided over the state this weekend will be modifying and moving northeast as south winds return to the area today in the 10 mph range.  Temps this morning are in the lower 30s and will move into the lower to mid-60s this afternoon along with mostly sunny conditions.  No precipitation is expected.  

The main pattern across the central and western US will keep a broad area of high pressure in the mid and upper levels centered near the Rockies while the east coast deals with Sandy.  This will keep a northwest flow aloft pattern across the central plains for most of the week. By the end of the week, the pattern will change allowing a storm system to approach the southern plains.  

Data indicates a weak wind shift will arrive across the area either Tuesday midday or late Tuesday evening.  This will not have a major impact on sensible weather across the area.  This weak boundary may reside across the northern part of the state for a few days, but South winds should quickly return Friday with warmer air with in the 70s by the middle of this week.  The work week will be very pleasant with no major storm systems across the middle part of the country.  Our next weather system of note will be approaching this weekend with a chance for some showers or some rain, but the data differs on the exact outcome of the upper level trough and therefore the placement of the higher pops.  The EURO would suggest higher pops for our area Sunday, while the GFS would keep the bulk of the precip to the south.  We'll start with a slight mention for Saturday and then carry a 30% probability for Sunday until the data offers more confidence.  

The major weather story today, tomorrow, and most of this week will be Hurricane Sandy.  This category one hurricane will be moving into the East Coast region today and Tuesday as colder air moves across the Midwest into the western side of the system.  This could combine to create a big mess across a large part of the NE United States with flooding rain, destructive wind, large power outages lasting for several days, and significant winter precipitation for portions of the Virginias.  The system will be losing its tropical status as it approaches the coastline by transforming from a warm core system to a cold core storm.  

 The strong to damaging winds could extend over a very large area resulting in power outages from New York, New Jersey, Philly, Maryland, and Washington D.C.  all the way to near the Great Lakes.   The storm surge issues have not received the amount of forewarning as the potential power outages, but the predicted storm surge could result in record flooding in many areas, in some sections superseding the floods from Hurricane Donna from 1960.  Rainfall production from the system could produce some 4 to 8  inches of rainfall with local amounts near 12 inches.  The central minimum pressure of the storm may also set records.  

Our high yesterday was 58 recorded at 4:04PM.  The normal average high is 69 with the low of 47.  Our daily records for Tulsa include 90 recorded on this date in 1950 and a low of 23 from 1913.

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Thanks for reading the morning discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone