We had some scattered showers and storms yesterday across southern and eastern OK but very little in the way of significant precipitation. The upper level system responsible for the precip is now too Far East to impact the region, but some cloud cover will linger across the eastern third of the state for the next few hours. I anticipate the clouds will clear out later allowing for temps to move into the lower or even mid-80s. Strong south winds will be likely today with wind speeds from 20 to 30 mph common across the region. The strong south winds will persist through Wednesday with the unseasonably warm weather remaining until a stout cold front arrives Thursday midday.
Almost all data is converging upon the Thursday early afternoon time period for the frontal passage as winds shift from the south to the north at 15 to 25 mph and temperatures fall from the 70s into the 50s by Thursday evening. The atmosphere along and ahead of the boundary may be capped (warm air aloft) and suppress thunderstorm activity, but I'll continue with a chance of thunderstorms with the frontal passage.
The higher precipitation chances will occur behind the front (post frontal) with rain developing atop the shallow dome of colder air flowing southward into the state, but this morning the data is not consistent regarding the rain probability. The GFS is now dry Friday with the EURO still offering some post frontal precipitation chances for the region. For this forecast cycle, I'll stick closer to the EURO solution, but may be on the high side regarding pops. The EURO would keep our daytime highs in the upper 40s or near 50 Friday afternoon along with gusty north winds at 15 to 25 mph. The GFS would allow highs in the mid-50s Friday. The cloud shield will slide southeast late afternoon with colder air will remain Friday night into Saturday with morning lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Saturday afternoon highs in the lower or mid-50s. North winds will remain around 15 to 25 mph Saturday before diminishing to the 15 mph range Sunday.
Sunday afternoon and Monday the cooler air mass will begin modifying and lifting northeast as the next upper level system begins to influence the weather to the west. The will result in south winds increasing early next week and daytime highs moving into the mid-60s Monday and the lower to mid-70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
In summary, our unseasonably warm weather will remain until Thursday as a strong cold front will bring fall like weather back to the region for Friday and the weekend.
Our high yesterday in Tulsa was 80.
The normal average high for today is 71 and the low is 49. Our daily records for Tulsa include the high of 92 from 1939 and a low of 26 from 1937.
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