Very Warm, But Turning Much Cooler Later in the Week.

If it seemed unusually warm this morning, consider the following: the normal daytime high for this time of year is 71, the low this morning was 73 which is a new record for warmest morning low on this date. But, it may not hold as there are some showers moving in from the west and we could possibly be lower than that by midnight if we get some rain-cooled air with those showers.

The shower activity has so far been fairly light even though we have abundant moisture in place and some elevated instability. It looks like a layer of warmer air aloft is keeping a lid on the vertical development that would otherwise result in more widespread showers/storms. Cannot completely rule out a rogue storm or two as we go into the evening or early night time hours, but the chances appear pretty minimal at this time. These showers are due to some energy aloft passing over the state and that system will be quickly moving on eastward. There is no surface reflection of this system so we will keep gusty southerly winds and much above normal temperatures for at least another couple of days.

Any lingering showers should have ended for the more eastern counties by early Tuesday morning and the early morning cloud cover should thin out enough for at least some sunshine for the afternoon hours. Together with gusty southerly winds, that means another very warm day with morning lows generally in the upper 60s and daytime highs generally in the low-mid 80s. More of the same is expected for Wednesday with gusty southerly winds, lots of sunshine and morning lows in the 60s followed by daytime highs well into the 80s.

Obviously, these conditions are more indicative of September than October, but this will all come to an end during the day Thursday. A strong cold front looks to be on schedule to arrive during the afternoon/evening hours and will bring much cooler conditions for Friday through the weekend. There will be a chance of showers/storms with the front itself late Thursday, but the better chances look to be on Friday behind the front. Some energy aloft will produce widespread cloud cover, a chance of light rain or showers, and with gusty northerly winds it will be quite cool. In fact, Friday looks downright chilly with temperatures possibly holding in the 40s to near 50 for most of the day. There is some uncertainty regarding Friday as one of the longer range products suggests the rain will be moving out rather quickly Friday morning with the potential for some afternoon sunshine. Another product which seems to have a better handle on the situation keeps the clouds and rain through the day and into that night and that is the solution we are leaning toward.

Saturday morning could see some lingering clouds and maybe even a few light showers for the extreme eastern counties, but skies are expected to be clearing during the day. Gusty northerly winds will likely keep us in the 50s during the day. Right now, it appears we will have fair skies and lighter winds for Sunday morning and perhaps Monday morning as well which would lead to the potential for a frost/freeze on those days.

So, the roller coaster ride with respect to temperatures will be in full swing as the week wears on. In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot