Now that September is behind us, October is starting off on a pleasant note although temperatures continue to be running above normal. That will change later in the week when a cool front arrives during the day Thursday and will result in a pretty good cool down in time for the coming weekend.
What few showers managed to pop up this evening will quickly dissipate after dark leaving us with mostly cloudy skies for much of the overnight hours. We will also keep a northerly wind overnight and temperatures by early morning should be generally in the 50s. We expect to see a lot more sunshine during the day Tuesday but a brisk northerly wind of 10-18 mph should still keep our daytime highs in the upper 70s which is pretty close to normal.
However, a gusty south wind will return during the day Wednesday in advance of the next cool front which looks to be pushing through the state during the day Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be a little tricky as the timing of the cool front will make a big difference. Right now, it appears the wind shift should be reaching the I-44 corridor shortly after the noon hour. That means temperatures for the more southern counties will likely be back into the 80s before the cooler arrives later in the day and the more northern counties will likely top out in the 70s by late morning with falling temperatures that afternoon.
This does not appear to be a big rainmaker as we will keep only a slight chance of a shower/storm with the front itself. It appears the front will briefly stall out well to our south on Friday with a brisk E to NE wind and cooler temperatures. Much cooler air should then make a bigger push Friday night and Saturday with a brisk northerly wind and daytime highs only in the 60s for Saturday and Sunday. It may even be cooler than that if the clouds do not clear out, but for now will call for partly cloudy skies and only a slight chance of lingering showers into the weekend. Again, this is not a very high confidence rainfall forecast as the longer range guidance has a large variance in the qpf forecast over the course of the weekend. The guidance does agree on the much cooler conditions though; so, if we do have more cloud cover and rainfall than now anticipated, it could be even cooler than the current forecast indicates.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.