Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, September 25th 2012, 6:22 am
By: Alan Crone

A Red Flag Warning has been posted for areas south of Tulsa today.  Gusty winds combined with dry conditions may lead to an enhanced fire danger across most of the state. The pattern will slowly change soon bringing some cooler air and rain chances back to the area. 

We'll be expecting highs back in the lower 90s today from Tulsa westward with some locations across Eastern OK to remain near 90.   Our rain and storm chances will be increasing during the next 36 hours due to a weak stationary boundary located across southern Kansas.  The higher chances will be north of Tulsa.  

The upper air flow will basically remain from the west to east for the next 60 hours allowing weak disturbances to move near or across the region.  These disturbances may spark off a few showers or storms on occasion during the next few days, but many locations south of Tulsa will miss out.  The higher like hood for scattered showers and storms will remain near and north of Highway 412 including places like Stillwater, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Tulsa, and southern Kansas.  The chance today will remain near 20% for Tulsa, but will increase to near a 30 pop for the Wednesday and Thursday time periods.  Locations north of Tulsa will be near a 40% chance of storms later this evening and for most of the next few days. Daytime highs will be coming back down into the mid and upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday.  

We continue to watch the data regarding the weekend and the possibility of remnant moisture from Hurricane Mariam moving into the area.   

This pacific basin hurricane is positioned about 400 miles off the Baja this morning and will move northwest for the next day before turning northeast during the next 3 days.  Some model data is suggesting that moisture from this system may become absorbed into the southern stream and move across the central and southern plains sometime Friday into the weekend.  The EURO has been very bullish on this probability while the GFS has kept this left over precip to our southwest.  As I wrote yesterday, the confidence for the weekend forecast remains low at best, and the actual forecast, both temperatures and precipitation chances will more than likely change.  We currently have 20% POPS in the extended for the weekend with highs near 80. The last run of the EURO seems to suggest the moisture will remain just south of our immediate area this weekend with higher rain chances located across southern OK and North Texas. At this point, we'll not increase the rain chances for the weekend, and they'll remain near 20% for Northern OK, but higher chances will be located across far southern OK.  

The official high for Tulsa yesterday was 91 recorded at 2:53PM.  The daily normal average high for today is 80 with the low of 58. 

Today's daily record high is 99 from 1939 with a record low of 42 from 2001.  

Sunrise this morning for Tulsa, OK will be at 7:14 AM with sunset tonight at 7:15PM.  

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