Friday Morning Update

Friday, September 21st 2012, 6:28 am

A few scattered showers and storms are located near the OK-Kansas state line this morning and will continue to move east to southeast as a warm front continues to slowly lift northeast.  The entire state will be located in the warm sector for most of the day resulting in afternoon highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s along with southwest winds.  A cold front will enter the area this afternoon bringing gusty north winds and mild air to the region tonight and tomorrow.  Saturday's highs should be near 80.  A second surge of cooler air will arrive Saturday afternoon bringing temperatures down into the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday morning with afternoon highs in the mid-70s.  Warmer air will return early next week with the next system of interesting arriving around Wednesday.  Model data is hinting at a possibility of a few showers developing Sunday afternoon or evening, but at this point, we'll only start a slight pop for Sunday evening into Monday morning.  

The weak wind shift-front moved to near the Tulsa area late yesterday afternoon and remained near northern OK overnight. The low level jet kicked in after midnight and helped to spark off a few storms near and north of the boundary.  Most of the storms are located across southern Missouri, but a few scattered storms formed across northern OK and southern Kansas. These shouldn't last too long, but may persist through the 8AM hour.  

The temperatures this afternoon are expected to move into the upper 80s or lower 90s as southwest surface winds increase directly ahead of the approaching boundary.  The timing of the boundary continues to be a little "iffy" but most short term hi res data supports a frontal passage ( fropa) around 4pm this afternoon in Tulsa. No precipitation is expected as the afternoon front arrives, but gusty north winds will occur for a few hours behind the boundary. Friday night football should be dry, warm, and pleasant with game time temps starting in the upper 70s and then finishing the 4th quarter in the upper 60s.  This is the first Friday night of the season that will not feature rain or storms in the area! 

The upper air pattern is highly amplified today and will remain so through the weekend, but should begin to "zone out" early next week.  This means a general west to east flow will result over the southern plains.  GFS and EURO data both have suggested a few minor waves passing over the area Sunday into early next week.  This could easily spark off a few showers or storms almost any day, including Sunday   but the higher likelihood should arrive around Wednesday or Thursday.   

The temperatures early next week will feel more like late summer than early fall.  The readings into the upper 80s will persist through the middle of the week.


The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 86 recorded at 4:24 pm.

The normal average high for today is 82 with a low of 60.

The daily record high for today is 98 from 1980 and the low is 38 from 1918.


Sunrise this morning is 7:11 AM and sunset tonight will be at 7:21 PM.


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Thanks for reading the morning discussion and weather blog.

Have a super day!


Alan Crone