Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, September 20th 2012, 6:21 am
By: Alan Crone

Today the high will be in the upper 80s or lower 90s along with south winds around 10 mph.  A weak system may produce a few showers or storms early Friday morning across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  

Warmer air will be moving across our area today in advance of a cold front that will slide across extreme northern OK later tonight.  This boundary will stall and move northward early Friday morning while scattered storms will form near the front.  Friday afternoon the boundary will move southward bringing north winds back to the region and setting the stage for a wonderful weekend.  

The main issue in the short term will be our scattered storm probabilities for later tonight and early Friday morning.  As I stated yesterday, the boundary will be near northern OK later tonight into pre-dawn Friday morning and may become a focus for scattered storms to develop.  The storms will more than likely be high based and elevated in nature.  Moisture content should be limited and this should limit the severe weather threat to some marginally severe hail.  One issue is the increasing low level jet and the possibility of the jet interacting near the boundary.  These types of boundaries, even during the early morning hours, can provide a focus for strong to severe storm development if sufficient moisture is present.  Our current indications lead me to think low level moisture will be limited, and the higher probability for scattered storms should be across extreme Northern OK, Southeastern Kansas, and SW Missouri. 

The timing of the front passage Friday may change, but the temps are still expected to have time to move into the upper 80s or even the lower 90s before cooling down Friday evening.  A nice surge of cooler air will arrive Saturday around midday or late afternoon which will result in a five star Sunday with morning lows in the upper 40s and highs in mid to upper 70s. 

The extended data support for next week indicates a system will be nearing around Wednesday and Thursday, but EURO-GFS data also supports a slight chance of a few showers or almost every day next week, but this would result in isolated chances at best and would require only a 10% mention. .

Today's normal-average high is 82 and the low is 60.

Records include a high of 102 from 1954 and a low of 39 from 1938.


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Thank you very much for reading the morning weather blog.

Alan Crone