Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, September 19th 2012, 5:44 am
By: Alan Crone

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s along with southwest winds.  The temps this morning are in the mid to upper 40s across northern OK and southeastern Kansas with area near and south of Tulsa in the lower 50s. A slight chance of showers and storms will occur Thursday through Saturday.  

What a wonderful weather day we experienced yesterday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s and sunny sky all day long.  It was absolutely wonderful.  Too bad the temps will warm back up today and tomorrow in advance of the next system to impact the area Thursday and Friday.  We continue to have different scenarios regarding the frontal boundary, the chance of showers and storms, and how warm the temps will move before the front rolls across the area. 

The NAM continues to suggest a surface area of low pressure will form tomorrow across western OK as low level moisture begins to stream northward across the state.  Surface wind flow will be back into the area of low pressure Thursday night into Friday morning, and this pattern is conducive for thunderstorm development across Southern Kansas and Northern OK.  Deep layer shear thankfully be lacking, and at this point, moisture will be "thin".  Some elevated storms will be likely, but the higher coverage may end up just north of our immediate area.  We'll continue to keep a small chance for storms during the Thursday evening and Friday morning period. 

The NAM also suggests the leading edge of the front will move across Northern OK late Thursday evening and effectively creates a west to east boundary across extreme northern OK.  Again, we're thankful the moisture should be of limited depth and quality, because this boundary would be an area that storms would "attempt" to become rooted in the boundary layer.  Surface based CAPE should be very low.  We'll keep you posted.  The front will lift northward during the Friday morning time period bringing very warm air back to the region Friday afternoon.   Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s along with south to southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range.  

The front should get a shove Friday evening and move southward bringing a cool down for the weekend.  Computer numbers for Saturday are finally catching on to the air mass compared to previous guidance and I'm  inclined to stay with the 70s for highs at this point in the forecast cycle.  Morning lows will drop into the upper 40s both Sunday and Monday morning with Saturday afternoon highs in the upper 70s and Sunday high temps in the lower to mid-70s.  North winds will continue for the weekend in the 10 to 15 mph range.   

The extended portions of the forecast will feature a warming trend into the middle part of next week.  A few runs ago, the EURO brought 20C temps at 850 back to the region!  But the data has backed off considerably.  I'll keep the temps Monday in the mid-80s and venture an upper 80 reading for Tuesday. The GFS features a decent shot of storms Wednesday and Thursday of next week, but the EURO hasn't latched into agreement.  Therefore, Ill keep it dry for now.  

The Autumnal Equinox occurs Saturday morning at 9:52AM central.  I can't wait.  Fall is my second favorite time of year.  A very close second to winter!  I love cold air! 

The high yesterday at Tulsa International was 77 at 4:23PM.

The normal high for today is 82 with the low of 61.

Records today include a high of 100 recorded in 1954/1910 with a low of 45 in 1991/1938.


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Alan Crone