Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, September 6th 2012, 6:16 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect another hot day with highs near 100 to 104.  A slight chance of isolated storms today. 

Looks like we're in store for another hot day with highs nearing 100 to 104 before some slightly cooler air arrives Friday.  A stronger front arrives Friday night bringing a noticeably cooler air mass to the region for the weekend.  Saturday morning temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s with highs during the afternoon around 78 to 80.  Sunday morning we'll see some lows in the lower to mid-50s near Tulsa with highs in the lower 80s.  Some areas north of Tulsa may experience morning lows in the upper 40s along the Ok-Kansas state line! 

This morning we see a showers and storms across central OK and some storms located across southwestern OK as numerous outflow boundaries are detected across the area this morning.  We'll continue to call for a slight chance of showers and storms in the forecast today, but another complex of storms will be likely to form later this afternoon and evening across Northwestern OK and Southwestern Kansas.  The upper air flow will allow this complex to move southeast with time later today and may be approaching portions of our area of concern by this evening or into early Friday morning.  A few storms may be severe later today across NW OK into central OK.  

A strong upper level trough is progressing across the northern US into southern Canada.  The tail end will brush the central plains later tonight through Friday allowing a surface front to develop and move rapidly into the southern plains by Friday evening.  The timing of the Friday front has been consistent in the data for the following week suggesting the boundary will be approaching the Tulsa area between 5pm to 7pm and then progressing through southern OK by midnight.  The 00NAM has now indicated the boundary may approach Tulsa between 2pm and 3pm tomorrow afternoon, while the GFS is now suggesting around 4pm.  The EURO is continuing to suggest the front arriving around 5pm to 7pm. Some showers and storms will be likely with the Friday system, but the higher coverage may end up across the NE portion of the state.  By early Saturday morning any leftover showers or storms will be located near the Red River and moving into northern Texas.  This means we'll keep the precipitation off the Saturday time period. 

The pressure gradient will be strong Friday night into Saturday morning allowing north winds from 15 to 20 mph to be common into the Saturday afternoon period.  The winds will decrease speeds by Saturday evening leaving a super great evening to enjoy the cooler weather.  

The extended data supports temps moving back into the lower 90s early next week with morning lows in the 60s and 70s.  The fire danger will also be increasing this weekend into early next week.  The State wide burn bans remain in place.  

GFS and EURO support another boundary nearing around Wednesday or Thursday.  

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Thanks for reading the blog!

Alan Crone