Colorado Professors Predict Romney Will Win Oklahoma, Nation In November

Thursday, August 23rd 2012, 9:17 am
By: Dave Davis

Two professors at the University of Colorado released a new study predicting Mitt Romney will win the election in November.

CU political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry's predictions have been right in every presidential election since 1980.

Their study predicts Mitt Romney will win virtually every swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

The pair is forecasting a big win for Romney with President Barack Obama losing the popular vote and coming up more than 50 votes short in the Electoral College.

Here's why: the two University of Colorado professors say it's based largely on the economy.

For every presidential election, they found that income levels and unemployment are strong predictors of the eventual winner.

The study's authors summed up their prediction by telling News On 6, "the economy has simply not improved to the point where the president can feel confident in his re-election."

The study predicts Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, 52.9 percent to President Obama's 47.1 percent. It also predicts Mitt Romney will take the Electoral College by about 100 votes.

In Oklahoma, Romney will win big.

"We forecast that Obama will receive about 28 percent of the vote in Oklahoma, which is the lowest estimated vote share for any state. This is about a six percent drop from 2008. I can't say that there's anything surprising about this estimate. Oklahoma's change in per capita personal income from the 4th quarter of 2009 is -2.7%, which is the fifth largest decline in the nation. Though the Oklahoma May unemployment rate of 4.8 beats the national average, we control for Obama's vote share in the state from 2008, so the president will likely perform as poorly, if not worse in 2012," said Michael Berry.

Election prediction models "suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy," Kenneth Bickers said. "It's not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."

Read more about the University of Colorado study.