Thursday Morning Update

The weather today will feature another afternoon of mostly sunny, windy and warm conditions with highs in the mid-90s.  The fire danger will continue to be high today before a storm system will approach the region this weekend with rain and storm chances. A red flag warning is underway for the counties just north of the Tulsa area.  A few storms will be likely this afternoon across Western OK and will move eastward with time approaching the I-35 area Friday morning.  The NSSL 4k hi res model indicates the possibility of a small cluster of storms approaching the Osage county area by 7AM Friday.  Friday afternoon into the evening hours a few showers or storms may be possible near NE OK and SE Kansas.   

The upper air pattern will change today and tomorrow from a northwest flow to more of a west to southwest flow aloft.  This will allow a storm system currently near the four corners area to slide eastward to central Kansas by this weekend.  Some showers and storms will be likely this weekend across central and eastern OK but the overall coverage remains somewhat problematic.  The EURO continues to support a nearly 100% coverage of moderate rainfall both Saturday and Sunday across northeastern OK while the NAM is a little more scattered, with not nearly as high as precipitation totals for the area.  The GFS is somewhere in-between, and probably offers the best shot at verification for this package.  I would love to forecast the EURO solution which would keep the highs near the upper 70s Saturday with some much needed rainfall for most of our area.  At this point, we'll be increasing our probabilities near 60%.  Regarding the severe weather potential:  we currently do not think significant severe weather will be likely.  There may be a few rouge severe storms, but the overall coverage would be low.

Isaac: 

The track of the consensus data continues to be more west compared to the previous  3 days of model data and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has also shifted slight west compared to the track as of two days ago.  This morning's update is basically a continuation of yesterday morning's track.  The EURO continues to be the "outlier" suggesting the system could slide slightly more westward by day 4 and 5.  All other guidance turns the system northwest around hour 48 to 72 and moves the system to near southern Florida by Monday.  We continue to offer reminders that tracks of tropical systems can changed greatly from forecast cycle to forecast cycle, and that one should not focus directly on the " center line" track but the overall " cone " of potential movement.   

There may be much talk regarding Isaac, Tampa Bay, and the Republican National Convention.  Much of it will be "over-hyped".  I'll try to post information regarding Isaac on my facebook page, and you're more than welcome to also follow me on twitter for the latest updates.  

 http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

@alancrone   on twitter