Notice the high/low temperature map from the OK Mesonet on the right. Lots of triple digits across the state once again, but fortunately, that is about to change. A cool front is moving across the area as I write this and will be followed by brisk northerly winds for Monday. The air behind the front is not all that cool, but it will be enough to keep us well below triple digits for the highs on Monday afternoon. Those brisk northerly winds and the dry air behind the front will also combine to create another enhanced fire danger situation for Monday.
Unfortunately, this system is not a big rainmaker although there remains a chance of showers/storms for the more eastern counties early tonight as it pushes on through that area. Skies should be clearing rather quickly from west to east overnight so if you want to see the Perseid meteor shower, this may be your last best chance for this year. Just look up after midnight till before dawn.
The clearing also means we should see lots of sunshine on Monday, but Tuesday is questionable. The various guidance products are hinting at a possible organized cluster of storms developing in KS and moving this way on Tuesday. This is what we refer to as a NW flow pattern which can produce what we also refer to as an MCS or Mesoscale Convective System. Problem is that this is usually an all or nothing type scenario and with the ongoing drought situation, I am reluctant to jump on the bandwagon with both feet just yet. So for now, will keep the rain chances at 20% for Tuesday and keep daytime temperatures in the 90s. If that MCS does indeed crank up then those rain chances will go up accordingly and the daytime temperatures will likely stay in the 80s so there is a large bust potential on Tuesday.
Same scenario for Wednesday. Some of the guidance products suggest we will see triple digits that afternoon with gusty southerly winds and partly cloudy skies. However, if we do end up with a decent rain footprint from any rains on Tuesday, that will mitigate the heating considerably. Also, the NW flow pattern will be weaker then but may produce a few showers/storms on Wednesday so am keeping a slight chance of rain in the forecast for that possibility. However, this all adds up to a large bust potential on temperatures for Wednesday, but once again I am being very conservative and am reluctant to get too carried away on any cooling/rain chances given the ongoing drought situation.
Thursday into Friday still looks like our best bet for rain and also a more significant cool-down that will last more than a day or two. The ECMWF has been consistently advertising a rather impressive cool front for this time of year and the other guidance is coming on board as well. The more consistent guidance across time and product lines gives me more confidence in the cool-down that we should enjoy beginning Friday and through the weekend. However, am still reluctant to get too carried away with our rain chances and am keeping it at 40% for now. The ongoing drought makes me take a more conservative view on any potential for a good, widespread, soaking rain event; although this system should provide at least some local relief.
So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.