Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, August 2nd 2012, 6:22 am
By: Alan Crone

We're expecting another extremely hot afternoon across northern Ok with highs in the 110 to 115 range.  The daytime highs should slowly drop a few degrees in the extended forecast and will be just below 100 by Sunday.  Unfortunately no major relief is indicated in the next 10 days.  A few isolated storms may be possible this afternoon across extreme NE Ok and NW Ark.  A slightly better chance of scattered showers and storms will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but the chance will remain near 20% for this forecast cycle.  

Another cluster of storms is located across Northern Kansas this morning and is moving eastward.  This cluster has produced a very sharp outflow boundary that is moving rapidly southeast and will move into northern OK this morning.  This outflow may produce a rouge thunderstorm along the Northern OK area but this probability is highly conditional.  The better location for isolated storms later today will be along the northeastern edge of the ridge line located across SE Kansas, SW MO, and NW Arkansas. 

Yesterday's highs in the Tulsa metro only hit 112 from Tulsa International, but several locations near Tulsa hit 113 to 115 including Okmulgee 115, Jenks 114, Stillwater 114, Bristow 114, Oilton 114, and Okemah 114.   

The excessive heat warnings will remain through at least Saturday before the overnight lows begin to drop down into the 70s with the daytime highs below 105.  

The main mid-level ridge may flatten a little this weekend, but the ridge doesn't totally disappear.  We think this feature will be too strong and too close to the southern plains which will result in more triple digit readings next week, but the highs should be closer to the 103 to 105 range compared to the extremely high readings that we are currently experiencing across the state. 

As the ridge flattens, a few more showers and storms will be likely across central Kansas that could either move southeast or shove an outflow boundary or two across our area during the next day or so.  Consequently, we'll be mentioning the possibility of a few isolated storms in the forecast for today and tomorrow, but will keep the actual pop off the main 7 day planner graphic.  We will continue with the slight pops for Sunday and Monday.  

The NHC is continuing to monitor a developing tropical system in the Atlantic.  This storm will eventually become "Ernesto" and will have a chance to move into the Caribbean during the next 3 to 5 days.  Model data varies on the intensity and exact track of the system which is not unusual, but this system may have a chance to become a hurricane within the next 7 days.   

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