As Mike Grogan showed in his excellent morning discussion, many locations have received some very beneficial rains over the last few days, but a widespread drought breaking rain has not occurred and does not appear likely anytime soon. Many of us are still looking for a good rain, including at my house in case you are wondering. We do have a decent shot at showers/storms developing this afternoon and some will extend into the early night time hours before dissipating. But, not everyone will be affected as the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall remain near the 50% level. As stated before, the chances of any rain anywhere in the forecast area is 100%, but it will not rain everywhere so the chances of your place getting wet stands at about 50%.
Also, as has been the case the last few days, those showers/storms that do pop up will be moving rather slowly southward and their slow movement could lead to an inch or more in a short period of time. Then, as they collapse, localized strong and gusty winds often result. So, if you happen to catch one of those showers/storms, count your blessings for the rain, but there may be a price to pay with respect to the wind.
One benefit we are all receiving is a break in the heat wave of the last few weeks. A weak frontal boundary is slowly moving southward across the state and the more E to NE winds behind it that will persist for much of this week will help keep temperatures in check. In fact, we should be at or perhaps a bit below normal for each of the next several days and nights before a return to southerly winds brings temperatures back up a little for the coming weekend. Even then, we are not looking at a return to the widespread, daily, triple digit readings we endured with the recent heat wave.
Although somewhat drier surface air will be filtering in behind the frontal boundary, the deeper moisture will not be very far away as the front stalls out along the Red River and eventually becomes diffuse. Thus, the return to southerly winds by late in the week also means higher humidity levels by then which in turn should result in at least a few of those popcorn showers/storms on just about any given day.
So, the long awaited pattern change has arrived and we will now be in a more typical summer-time pattern of hot, humid conditions with a few cooling showers/storms that may pop up just about anywhere. Problem is that we started the summer off so hot and dry, that our soil moisture as of this morning is still in pretty bad shape as you can see from the map on the right. So, it will take more than the scattered showers/storms of today and the spotty showers/storms that may occur over the next week or so to replenish our soil moisture.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.