Monday Update

Monday, July 2nd 2012, 6:40 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect a mix of sun with a few clouds later today with a couple of scattered showers and storms across Eastern OK.  Highs today will be in the mid-90s. 

I'll be somewhat brief today with the morning update.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure has basically split into two separate ridges:  one located to our southwest and the other located across the Deep South.  A weak upper level system located over Mexico and into southern Texas will spread a weak vort into the Arklatex today with a few scattered showers or storms.  We'll keep a slight chance of showers or storms in the forecast today but the coverage will be on the slim side.  I suppose an isolated storm is possible tomorrow along the OK-Ark state line, but I'll only make a mention of this "on air" today but not carry a 10% pop on the main graphics.

The mid-level ridge will attempt to gain some strength this week and become centered closer to the state, but I don't think it will be as strong as last week.  Temperatures in the 850MB level will not be as high ( 20-22C) compared to last week, but I am concerned about the drying of the surface layer of vegetation and the impact on the readings.  There's a chance the temps may move back into the 100 to 105 range because of the drying conditions combined with southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday despite the mid-level temps being slightly cooler compared to last week.

I'll not post too much regarding the extended, but some data support a pattern change in the 10 to 14 day range.  If this happens, it will be a good thing for the state.  If it doesn't happen, our drought and fire danger issue will be going through the roof.  Regardless, the fire danger will also be increasing by the middle of the week and we'll encourage you to remain cautious and aware of the rapid fire weather spread conditions by the middle of the week.