The map on the right shows the total rainfall so far for the month of May, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. We are on pace to set the record for the driest May ever, not only here in Tulsa but statewide. It bears repeating that May is normally the wettest month of the year followed by June, but the June rains normally taper off quickly after the first half of the month. So, if we don't get some badly needed rains over the next couple of weeks, that puts us in a difficult situation going into those hot, normally drier months of July and August.
Fortunately, we have had a nice break in the early season heat over the last few days with most locations in the 40s to start the day this morning. Not for long though as temperatures will be back above normal this afternoon and southerly winds will keep us well above normal for the rest of the month.
Fair skies and a SE breeze through the night tonight should result in overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s which is pretty close to normal and certainly milder than we were this morning. Lots of sunshine for Wednesday and a south wind that will be gusting to 30 mph or more during the afternoon will push our daytime highs to near 90. We will maintain a brisk southerly wind for the overnight hours and gusty southerly winds during the day right on through Memorial Day itself. That means our nights will be quite mild with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 and our days quite warm with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
Unfortunately, our rain chances are pretty much in the slim to none category through that period as well. A weak front or more of a wind shift line will make it as far south as NW OK and S KS late Thursday, but it is not expected to have any active weather associated with it in the form of showers or storms. We do expect more cloud cover with the possibility of a stratus deck for much of the day Thursday and that should at least knock a few degrees off our daytime temperatures. Other than that, mostly sunny skies will be the general rule until perhaps Memorial Day itself. The longer range guidance does suggest a stronger system may arrive along about the Tue-Wed time frame with a little better chance of rain. Keeping the fingers crossed on that possibility as it certainly is not a sure thing.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.