Another Nice Day

Expect mostly sunny and mild conditions today with afternoon highs in the mid-70s.  The next chance of showers and storm activity will arrive late Thursday evening into Friday. 

Yesterday was absolutely wonderful with an official high of 76F recorded at Tulsa International Airport.  The mild weather pattern will remain for the next day or so before another upper level wave will move closer to the region allowing for increasing storm chances Thursday evening into Friday.   Model data offers varying solutions regarding the exact outcome of the system.  GFS and EURO data support more energy slightly southward compared to the last few runs of the NAM and would bring a frontal boundary into the region late Thursday evening with some overrunning precipitation chances during the day Friday.  The NAM keeps most of the upper level dynamics north of the region.  This would bring the boundary into the region Thursday evening into Friday morning, but the NAM would limit our storm chances to a small window through Friday morning.  At this point in the forecast cycle, I'm inclined to have more confidence in the EURO-GFS solution of keeping some precipitation chances during the day Friday.  This means I have increased the pops for the daytime period Friday and consequently needed to lower the highs into the lower 60s. 

The weekend still appears very pleasant with cool mornings and mild afternoons.  Saturday morning's readings will dip into the lower 40s with highs in the upper 60s with Sunday high temps forecast for the lower 70s.  Extended ensemble data supports another system by the end of next week.

Damage assessment reports have been posted from the National Weather Service Tulsa regarding the Skiatook and SE Cherokee County tornadoes.  Thankfully these tornadoes were relatively weak and occurred in sparsely populated areas.  But even weak tornadoes can destroy property and life.  A mobile home was destroyed in the Sunday morning Southeastern Cherokee county tornado, but the residents decided to spend the night with relatives in their home based on the forecast for severe weather during the overnight and early morning hours.  This decision may have saved their lives.

From the National Weather Service-Tulsa:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

225 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-162130-

BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-

PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-

TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-

CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-

LATIMER-LE FLORE-

225 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY SUMMARY FOR THE APRIL 15TH TORNADO EVENT...

.SKIATOOK TORNADO (OSAGE COUNTY OKLAHOMA)...

START DATE: APRIL 15, 2012

START TIME: 549 AM CDT

START LOCATION: 4.8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SKIATOOK

START LAT/LON: 36.3233 N / -96.0682 W

END TIME: 555 AM CDT

END LOCATION: 0.8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SKIATOOK

END LAT/LON:36.3607 N / -96.0093 W

RATING: EF-1

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.2 MILES

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH:200 YARDS

FATALITIES: (0)

INJURIES:(0)

SURVEY SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF N 68TH

W AVENUE AND W 118TH STREET N WHERE TREES WERE SNAPPED AND A

GARAGE WAS DAMAGED. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST FROM THERE...

SNAPPING OR UPROOTING TREES AND DAMAGING A METAL FRAMED HANGAR AT

THE SKIATOOK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED JUST

NORTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IN THE TORNADO WAS

ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 90 TO 100 MPH BASED ON SOME OF THE TREE

DAMAGE FOUND WITHIN THE PATH.

.CARTERS LANDING TORNADO (CHEROKEE/ADAIR COUNTIES OKLAHOMA)...

START DATE: APRIL 15, 2012

START TIME: 922 AM CDT

START LOCATION: 9.1 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TAHLEQUAH

START LAT/LON: 35.7847 N / -94.9256 W

END TIME: 943 AM CDT

END LOCATION: 3.8 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTIE

END LAT/LON:            35.9350 N / -94.7496 W

RATING: EF-1

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 14.5 MILES

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 500 YARDS

FATALITIES: (0)

INJURIES:(0)

SURVEY SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO DEVELOPED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF CARTERS LANDING AND

TRAVELED NORTHEAST...CROSSING AN ARM OF TENKILLER LAKE...AND

MOVING INTO ADAIR COUNTY NEAR WHERE HIGHWAY 51 CROSSES THE COUNTY

LINE.  THE TORNADO DISSIPATED SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTIE.  SEVERAL HOMES

RECEIVED ROOF DAMAGE.  A NUMBER OF SHEDS AND BARNS WERE DAMAGED.

MANY TREES WERE DOWNED OR SNAPPED.  AN UNOCCUPIED MOBILE HOME WAS

ROLLED JUST WEST OF THE COMMUNITY OF TITANIC.

$$

EJC/SFP/SAA