Mild Temps Remain

I'm running a little late this morning with the discussion, so I'll keep this on the short side today!

The upper air flow remains from the northwest this morning.  A few showers or storms will be possible this morning through the midday time period mainly across northern OK into northwestern Arkansas.  The short term observations suggest this activity will remain widely spaced and rather sparse.  The model data is much more robust with the early morning coverage but I have opted to keep the mention at 30%. 

A weak boundary will slide southward today bringing northeast surface winds and highs in the lower to mid-70s for most of northern OK.  A few locations on the OK and Kansas state line may stay in the upper 60s.  There may be a few isolated storms forming this afternoon or tonight near the boundary across the southern part of the state and a few of these storms could become severe with hail the main issue. 

Our upper air flow could bring another round of showers into the region early tomorrow morning before the mid-level ridge slides into the region signaling an eventual change in the upper air pattern.  Our normal spring time upper air pattern will be unfolding by the end of this week into the weekend.  The southwest flow aloft will bring several waves of instability into the southern and central plains.  Abundant low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be in place with several storm chances remaining through the weekend. 

Thursday a dry line will be sharpening up across western OK and a few storms may form and migrate into our area Thursday evening.  Friday through the weekend storms could form at any time, but the higher chances would be during peak afternoon heating.  The dynamics with the system would suggest all modes of severe weather possible from Friday into the weekend.

The GFS and EURO differ regarding the eventual outcome of the main upper level trough.  The EURO attempts to close off the trough creating additional rainfall chances through Tuesday of next week while the GFS is more progressive taking the system away from the area Sunday evening and early Monday morning.  Neither model has a great track record this year, but historically the EURO has performed better in the day 5 to 7 range compared to the GFS.  We'll lean toward the EURO solution and will be making adjustments to the extended numbers as higher confidence arrives.