Record Warm Jan-Mar.

In case you missed it, yesterday's very warm temperatures put the month of March into the record books as the warmest March ever. Not only that, but it turns out that the first three months of 2012 are also the warmest Jan-Mar we have ever experienced. The implications for the Spring and Summer are not as clear as one might think though and that is a topic I will be dealing with in subsequent blogs.

At any rate, after a record setting March and Jan-Mar, April is also getting off to an extremely warm start. In fact, we may see our first 90 degree day of the year this afternoon. The guidance has backed off considerably on just how warm we may be and I would not be surprised if we end up just a little shy of the 90 degree mark. One of the reasons is a lack of a SW wind component. Usually, for things to really warm up around here we need more of a SW surface wind and all indications are that our winds will be from the south all day long. The winds will be rather gusty with winds speeds of 15-25+ so it will be breezy.

Those gusty southerly winds will continue through the night as well which will keep temperatures from cooling off much. We should start the day Monday in the mid-upper 60s which will be close to record territory. The afternoon high on Monday will also be in the upper 80s along with gusty southerly winds.

Mostly sunny skies today, fair skies tonight, and mostly sunny skies for much of Monday will give way to increasing cloudiness by Monday evening/night. A slow moving storm system will be drifting across the southern Rockies and headed toward OK during the early part of the week and will bring with it an increasing chance of showers/storms. Monday will be dry, but storms will be moving in from the west Monday night and some of them could be severe.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will depend on the exact position/strength/timing of the upper level storm system. Since it is currently in the Pacific as I write this, it has still not been adequately sampled by our observational network. That creates lots of uncertainty regarding the Tue-Thu time period. Right now, it looks like showers/storms will be likely for Tuesday into Wednesday and that we should be on the backside by Thursday with only some lingering morning showers. That is subject to change once the system makes landfall and we have a better idea of just what we are dealing with. These uncertainties also create a huge bust potential for the forecast temperatures during that time frame.

At any rate, the latter part of the week should see a more stable pattern, although there is uncertainty regarding the Easter weekend. Current indications suggest another, much weaker system will be impacting the state by then so have introduced a slight chance of showers/storms to account for that uncertainty.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot