Thursday Update

The models have really flipped regarding the precipitation chances for the next few days across the state.  We're still going to see some scattered showers or storms, but not nearly the coverage as depicted in the data a few days ago. The incoming 06ZNAM would suggest almost nothing for the Eastern OK area.  But with abundant moisture nearby, the boundary to the north, and the evidence of a few small disturbances in the atmosphere, some scattered thunderstorms will occur.  The big mystery is trying to pin down exactly where these storms will eventually pop up.

 The timing would suggest a shot of scattered storms to out west later this afternoon and evening as the boundary should slowly ooze southward across northwestern OK.  I don't think the boundary actually moves past the Tulsa area, but Friday morning it may be along the Highway 412 corridor, or maybe alittle more northward long the northern border of the state.  Friday morning we could see a few showers or storms, but the coverage would be somewhat low.

 Friday evening into pre-dawn Saturday, most operational data supports another shot of some scattered storms.  The better location may end up south of I-40.  GFS data is keeping a slight pop through the overnight hours into pre-dawn Saturday across Eastern OK and western Arkansas.  We'll elect to keep Saturday dry with highs in the lower to mid 80s. 

The Sunday time period may feature a very windy and almost hot afternoon as southwest surface winds will be increasing from 20 to 30 mph.  This could allow our temps to soar into the upper 80s near 90, but what happens Monday is very interesting.  If the system slows down just a tad from earlier data, a significant severe weather outbreak is a possibility. GFS data supports a 998MB low developing across Central OK Monday along the front.  This could act to enhance convergence along the boundary as it moves across Eastern OK and western Arkansas.  Earlier data did not develop the surface low and was more progressive in the movement of the boundary.  We have increased the pops for Monday to a 30% shot and will monitor the data closely.  

Temperatures following the Monday frontal passage will be cooler than current numbers but still above normal daytime highs for the time period.   

As we peer into the middle part of next week examining the various model outputs, it's a potpourri of possibilities.  The interesting output from the EURO supports a Omega type block which would keep organized storms away from the state.  This is very odd for early April and very suspicious at this point.  Confidence on anything past this Sunday is extremely low.  As always, stay tuned!