Sunny and Breezy Today

Temperatures will move into the upper 60s and lower 70s today along with sunny sky and mild conditions.  Extremely windy conditions are likely Tuesday as a strong storm system draws closer to the state. 

 The first issue will concern the fire danger.  Numerous wild fires burned yesterday as   strong south winds and low humidity contributed to a high fire danger spread. Today the winds will not be quite as strong, but the pressure gradient will be extremely strong tomorrow with south winds from 20 to 40 mph creating an extremely high fire danger.  This pressure gradient is developing due to another upper level storm system drawing closer to the area which will eventually bring a good chance of showers and storms to the area.   

The model data consensus is good for the initial advancement of the system, but data lacks any consistency regarding the outcome from Friday into the weekend.  

GFS and EURO data both suggest a high chance of showers and storms Thursday, but the GFS is now suggesting very little precip from Friday through the weekend, while the EURO keeps the precip across the area.  Both data sets are somewhat consistent in bringing the main upper level system as a quasi-cut off low slowly across the state this weekend which would lead some credence to the wet EURO solution.  Temperatures may also end up a little cooler than our current advertisement for the period, but at this point, I'm leaning toward keeping the previous numbers from last nights forecast to avoid any major flipping.  

As it stands now, the severe weather threat for the early part of the system will be limited to Thursday, and basically across the southern part of the area.  Our surface winds will quickly back from the northeast Thursday morning bringing cooler air to the region, while southern sections may stay in the southerly surface flow a little longer.  We'll need additional data regarding the placement and outcome of the main upper level system before making any comments regarding the severe weather threat for next weekend.