20 Degrees Cooler Friday.

The climatological winter season is Dec 1-Feb 28 or Feb 29 as is the case this year. The map on the right shows the departure from normal across the state for this past winter, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Obviously, much warmer than normal conditions were the rule statewide. Here in Tulsa, we have records going back to 1905 and the long term average during that period for the winter season is 39.5 degrees. This past winter, the average was 43.8 which is 4.3 degrees above normal and puts us in 6th place in the ranking for warmest winters. Quite a contrast to the last couple of winters.

It will be back to the real world for the next few days though as a cold front will be pushing through the state after midnight tonight. Brisk northerly winds will bring temperatures back down to more seasonal levels, if not below, through the day Saturday. For Friday, temperatures behind the front first thing in the morning will generally be in the 40s; whereas ahead of the front, morning temperatures will still be in the 50s. As the front pushes rapidly on through the state during the early morning hours, temperatures will fall off then try to rebound during the afternoon. Brisk northerly winds and partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies will hamper the rebound though and we should generally be in the low-mid 50s for the afternoon and quickly falling that evening.

Also, there is a slight chance for a few storms to form along the leading edge of the front for extreme E OK and into Arkansas for late tonight and early Friday morning. If they can develop, there will be a potential for some damaging winds and hail.

By Saturday, we will likely see temperatures at or below freezing to start the day and near the freezing mark again Sunday morning. Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday will help to moderate things somewhat with daytime highs well into the 50s Saturday and back into the 60s Sunday. Brisk NW to W winds will also keep an elevated fire danger for the next few days, although not nearly as bad as the warmth and low humidity levels of today.

Gusty southerly winds will quickly return early next week and will eventually bring more moisture back into the state. That will mitigate the fire danger somewhat, but the strength of the winds will still be a factor, particularly by Tuesday and Wednesday. It will also be warming back up by then and the next storm system should be approaching later in the week. The latest long range guidance has quickly diverged for that time frame so about the best we can say right now is that there will likely be a chance of showers and storms by late Wednesday or more likely into the day Thursday and perhaps even Friday.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot