Storms Possible

We're looking at a shot of a few storms late afternoon into the evening across eastern OK.  If they form, severe weather is possible.  

A strong upper level system currently near southern Nevada is rapidly approaching our area.  A cold front will sweep from the west to east across the state this evening bringing the storm chances to the region.  A surface area of low pressure will form well northward into portions of northern Kansas or southern Nebraska with the dry line trailing southward into western OK by midmorning.   

Model data indicates widespread clouds with some scattered showers may occur this morning ahead of the boundary which would act to limit surface instability, but the dynamics and shear of the system will be very strong.  If low level moisture becomes deep enough, a threat of severe weather will be realized across east central OK and western Arkansas later this evening.  Models indicate a few showers and storms may form around the 3pm to 5pm time frame well ahead of the dry line.  These storms may be slightly elevated, but if they can root into the boundary layer, severe weather would be likely.  NSSL data brings the front near Tulsa by 11pm and clears the east central part of the state between 2am to 3am.  

Data indicates dew point temperatures in the 50s or possibly the lower 60s may surge northward ahead of the boundary by 5pm to 9pm tonight, but model data also supports a veering surface wind profile later this evening which would mean south to southwest winds along the boundary.  This would also limit the convergence along the boundary late tonight.  Winds will be backing into the central OK area this afternoon through the 5pm time frame, and we'll mention a storm possibility for this time period near and west of Tulsa.  The entire system will be moving east of the state pre-dawn Wednesday.

Wednesday will probably be the best day of the week with morning lows in the upper 30s and highs in the lower to mid to upper 60s.  

Thursday afternoon weather will feature strong south to southwest winds with highs moving into the mid or upper 70s.  The strong southwest winds combined with warm afternoon highs and the dry vegetation will lead to another high fire danger day across the state. 

Thursday night into Friday morning another strong looking storm system will be approaching but the lack of low level moisture will limit the storm chances to a 20% pop for our forecast.  Once again, if moisture is sufficiently deep ahead of the Friday morning system, storms would be severe across eastern OK and western Arkansas.  At this point, model data supports only a slight chance of storm initiation for pre-dawn Friday morning.  I must stress that storm parameters for this time period would support significant severe weather.  We'll keep the probability at 20% for storm initiation, but if storms do form, there is a high likelihood that storms would be severe.  

The weekend will feature morning lows in the 30s and 40s with daytime highs in the mid 60 Saturday and upper 60s Sunday.