Very Windy Today

Very windy conditions are likely today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  A chance of storms will remain for the area this afternoon and early evening. 

The winds will be increasing today from the south as a strong upper level storm system draws near the region.  South winds from 20 to 30 mph will be common with some gusts near 40 mph possible.  The fire danger will be increasing today due to the relatively dry conditions and strong winds. 

Low level moisture will be slowly increasing later today across the eastern part of the state as the storm system gets closer and some scattered storms will be possible.  The dynamics of the system will be very strong and a few severe storms will be possible but not likely.  Highs in the upper 50s near 60 will be possible.   Point soundings from the NAM for Tulsa indicate SB cape near 450 with a lifted index of -2.7 and a SWEAT near 480.

We're seeing a few scattered showers this morning across north central OK and southeastern Kansas as the leading edge of very strong winds begin to move across the state.  Most of these early morning showers will remain to the west or northwest of Tulsa, but there will be a very slight chance of an early morning shower.  The higher chances will occur around 4pm to 7pm for the Tulsa metro as the cold front approaches from the west.  NSSL 4Kwrf timing indicates the boundary will be near the I-35 area around 4pm and near the Tulsa area between 6pm and 7pm.  The system will be along the OK-Ark state line by midnight.   

The air mass behind the departing system will be mild with no major cooling expected.  Temperatures will remain mild for most of the remaining week, but some seasonally cooler air will be possible Friday as another front moves across the region.

The models continue to struggle with Sunday into early next week with the GFS offering a much colder solution compared to the EURO.  I'm inclined to follow the lead of the GFS and begin trending the numbers down for Sunday.  The 850 plots would indicate a decent shot of cold air with highs next Monday back into the 30s, but for only a very short time period.  Stay tuned.  We're not finished with winter yet, even though this week will lead us to more spring like conditions through Thursday.