Warming Trend Through Mid-Week.

Notice the snow depth maps on the right across N America. The top one shows where and how much snow was on the ground one year ago and the bottom one shows how much snow is on the ground now. Not only is the area that is covered by snow much less than one year ago, but even where there is snow the amount is considerably less as well. Officially, here in Tulsa, there has only been ½ inch of recorded snowfall so far this winter. To put things in perspective, by this time last year we had not received much more than that with only 2.8", but January of last year was also much colder. Of course, February of last year is when everything changed starting with the Feb 1 blizzard.

So far, we do not see any indications of a repeat of what happened last year, but the latter part of the coming week could get a little interesting if some of the longer range guidance is correct. In the short term, the next couple of days will be on the warm and windy side which will also create an enhanced fire danger situation. S to SW surface winds of 15-25 with gusts to 30 or more will be possible Monday and Tuesday. Although the winds will not be as strong during the overnight hours, we still expect enough of a southerly wind tonight to keep temperatures up with most locations staying well above freezing to start the day on Monday.

Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will be well into the 60s and the low Tuesday morning will start off at or above our normal daytime high for this time of year. A weak cool front will be moving into the state on Tuesday and should be in the area through Wednesday before receiving a more substantial push later in the week. There should be enough moisture available by then for at least a slight chance of showers for the Tue-Wed time frame. There will not be much of a cool-down initially from this system, but cooler air should be arriving later in the week and for the coming weekend.

Quite frankly, there is a high bust potential for Friday into Saturday. The longer range guidance has been flipping about every other run so there has been very little run to run consistency. The solutions range from mostly sunny and cool to cold and wet depending on which model and which model run is used. Needless to say, this leads to a very low confidence scenario. For now, will go with cooler with only a slight chance of precipitation, but keep in mind that may well change dramatically as better data becomes available over the next day or two.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot